Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (69%). 2 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 24°C on October 30?

2 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (33%) · Yes at 31¢ · $309 held · ends Oct 30

Yes31¢No69¢Ends Fri, Oct 30, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 33%

Total Value

$309.06

Combined PnL

-$31.95

Smart Money Entry

27.7¢ → 31¢

+12% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 31%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

2 of 6 top traders (33%)Underdog side (market favors No 69%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes31%

No69%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes2 traders

Total Value$209.74

Total Shares874

Combined PnL-$32.13

No4 traders

Total Value$99.32

Total Shares139

Combined PnL+$0.17

Yes — 33%No — 67%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR	Yesavg 27.6¢	$219.47	$190.54	-$28.93	51% 590-559 (1149)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100	Noavg 68.4¢	$70.48	$69.57	-$0.92	53% 6336-5550 (11886)
HE hello.67CTR<$100	Yesavg 28¢	$22.4	$19.2	-$3.2	50% 1658-1644 (3302)
balthazar<$100	Noavg 70¢	$14	$15.2	+$1.2	61% 20702-13120 (33822)
Istaroth<$100	Noavg 69¢	$10.03	$9.99	-$0	26% 281-795 (1076)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 77.8¢	$4.67	$4.56	-$0.11	57% 13150-10021 (23171)

0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR

Yes

Invested

$219.47

Value

$190.54

PnL

-$28.93

Record

51%

590-559 (1149)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100

Invested

$70.48

Value

$69.57

PnL

-$0.92

Record

53%

6336-5550 (11886)

hello.67CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$22.4

Value

$19.2

PnL

-$3.2

Record

50%

1658-1644 (3302)

balthazar<$100

Invested

$14

Value

$15.2

PnL

+$1.2

Record

61%

20702-13120 (33822)

Istaroth<$100

Invested

$10.03

Value

$9.99

PnL

-$0

Record

26%

281-795 (1076)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$4.67

Value

$4.56

PnL

-$0.11

Record

57%

13150-10021 (23171)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 31%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

2 of 6 top traders (33%)Underdog side (market favors No 69%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance33.1%

31.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$202.22

Max Loss

-$100.00

302.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.