Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (85%). 3 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 20°C on October 29?

3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (60%) · Yes at 16¢ · $253 held · ends Oct 29

Yes16¢No84¢Ends Thu, Oct 29, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 60%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$252.75

Combined PnL

-$11.53

Research grade

AvoidYes at 16%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 5 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors No 85%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes16%

No85%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes3 traders

Total Value$57.83

Total Shares303

Combined PnL-$10.57

No2 traders

Total Value$35.57

Total Shares43

Combined PnL-$0.95

Yes — 60%No — 40%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
24 241532532432ARB<$100	Noavg 86¢	$157.21	$159.36	+$2.15	60% 1629-1089 (2718)
└ No leg	Noavg 86¢	$128.17	$116.97	-$11.21
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 14.7¢	$29.04	$42.39	+$13.35
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR<$100	Yesavg 25.5¢	$46.95	$39.52	-$7.43	47% 600-687 (1287)
Istaroth<$100	Noavg 88¢	$20.2	$20	-$0.2	25% 283-869 (1152)
RO rocky42019<$100	Noavg 78.1¢	$51.96	$15.57	-$0.75	42% 1675-2291 (3966)
HE hello.67CTR<$100	Yesavg 27.3¢	$12.56	$9.88	-$2.68	50% 1684-1666 (3350)
HE HellYeahTraderCTR<$100	Yesavg 21.1¢	$8.89	$8.42	-$0.46	55% 293-244 (537)

241532532432ARB<$100

Invested

$157.21

Value

$159.36

PnL

+$2.15

Record

60%

1629-1089 (2718)

Both legs:

No$128.1786¢-$11.21

Yes$29.0414.7¢+$13.35

0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$46.95

Value

$39.52

PnL

-$7.43

Record

47%

600-687 (1287)

Istaroth<$100

Invested

$20.2

Value

$20

PnL

-$0.2

Record

25%

283-869 (1152)

rocky42019<$100

Invested

$51.96

Value

$15.57

PnL

-$0.75

Record

42%

1675-2291 (3966)

hello.67CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$12.56

Value

$9.88

PnL

-$2.68

Record

50%

1684-1666 (3350)

HellYeahTraderCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$8.89

Value

$8.42

PnL

-$0.46

Record

55%

293-244 (537)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 16%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 5 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors No 85%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance17.2%

15.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$481.77

Max Loss

-$100.00

581.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.