Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 19°C on October 29?
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (60%) · No at 79¢ · $137 held · ends Oct 29
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 60%
$136.53
$9
Research grade
NeutralNo at 79%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR<$100 | Yesavg 17.6¢ | $71.28 | $80.84 | +$9.57 | 46% 574-661 (1235) |
 Istaroth<$100 | Noavg 78.6¢ | $25.28 | $25.04 | -$0.2 | 29% 280-697 (977) |
 balthazar<$100 | Noavg 80¢ | $16 | $16 | +$0 | 61% 20619-13064 (33683) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 82.5¢ | $13.96 | $13.54 | -$0.42 | 57% 13006-9921 (22927) |
24 241532532432CTR<$100 | Yesavg 20¢ | $1.06 | $1.11 | +$0.05 | 61% 1566-1014 (2580) |
Invested
$71.28
Value
$80.84
PnL
+$9.57
Record
46%
574-661 (1235)
Istaroth<$100Invested
$25.28
Value
$25.04
PnL
-$0.2
Record
29%
280-697 (977)
balthazar<$100Invested
$16
Value
$16
PnL
+$0
Record
61%
20619-13064 (33683)
Invested
$13.96
Value
$13.54
PnL
-$0.42
Record
57%
13006-9921 (22927)
Invested
$1.06
Value
$1.11
PnL
+$0.05
Record
61%
1566-1014 (2580)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
78.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.