Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (68%). 3 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 18°C on October 29?

3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (60%) · Yes at 32¢ · $456 held · ends Oct 29

Yes32¢No68¢Ends Thu, Oct 29, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 60%

Total Value

$455.77

Combined PnL

-$84.28

Smart Money Entry

30.4¢ → 32¢

+5% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 32%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 5 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors No 68%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes32%

No68%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes3 traders

Total Value$354

Total Shares1,423

Combined PnL-$82.57

No2 traders

Total Value$101.77

Total Shares138

Combined PnL-$1.71

Yes — 60%No — 40%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR	Yesavg 33.5¢	$309.7	$212.92	-$96.78	47% 585-672 (1257)
24 241532532432CTR	Yesavg 23.6¢	$82.89	$103.43	+$20.54	60% 1599-1056 (2655)
HE HellYeahTrader<$100	Noavg 76.3¢	$68.24	$66.16	-$2.08	54% 268-225 (493)
RO rocky42019CTR<$100	Yesavg 27.3¢	$49.37	$37.65	-$6.33	42% 1675-2291 (3966)
HE hello.67<$100	Noavg 69¢	$35.24	$35.61	+$0.37	50% 1654-1642 (3296)

0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR

Yes

Invested

$309.7

Value

$212.92

PnL

-$96.78

Record

47%

585-672 (1257)

241532532432CTR

Yes

Invested

$82.89

Value

$103.43

PnL

+$20.54

Record

60%

1599-1056 (2655)

HellYeahTrader<$100

Invested

$68.24

Value

$66.16

PnL

-$2.08

Record

54%

268-225 (493)

rocky42019CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$49.37

Value

$37.65

PnL

-$6.33

Record

42%

1675-2291 (3966)

hello.67<$100

Invested

$35.24

Value

$35.61

PnL

+$0.37

Record

50%

1654-1642 (3296)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 32%

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 5 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors No 68%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance34.1%

32.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$193.21

Max Loss

-$100.00

293.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.