Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 21°C on October 28?
3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (75%) · No at 77¢ · $368 held · ends Oct 28
⚖️
Neutral
No
4
No 75%
$367.77
$34.24
74.3¢ → 77.3¢
+4% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 77%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 4 top traders (75%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HE HellYeahTrader | Noavg 73.4¢ | $145.09 | $152.82 | +$0.11 | 55% 221-183 (404) |
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR | Yesavg 16.7¢ | $708.88 | $145.32 | +$26.76 | 46% 559-650 (1209) |
HE hello.67<$100 | Noavg 77.4¢ | $38.22 | $38.22 | +$0 | 50% 1627-1615 (3242) |
24 241532532432<$100 | Noavg 75¢ | $24.04 | $31.41 | +$7.37 | 61% 1532-972 (2504) |
Invested
$145.09
Value
$152.82
PnL
+$0.11
Record
55%
221-183 (404)
Invested
$708.88
Value
$145.32
PnL
+$26.76
Record
46%
559-650 (1209)
Invested
$38.22
Value
$38.22
PnL
+$0
Record
50%
1627-1615 (3242)
Invested
$24.04
Value
$31.41
PnL
+$7.37
Record
61%
1532-972 (2504)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
77.4¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.