Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (78%). 2 of 3 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 20°C on October 27?
2 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (67%) · Yes at 22¢ · $103 held · ends Oct 27
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
3
Yes 67%
$103.01
-$48.21
23.7¢ → 22¢
-7% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
AvoidYes at 22%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Longshots (0.05–0.30) lost −29.5 % a trade pooled (n 1,625; −22 % in spring, −35 % in October): the strongest effect in the backtests.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 3 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors No 78%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
24 241532532432CTR<$100 | Yesavg 14.9¢ | $61.13 | $90.28 | +$29.15 | 61% 1506-947 (2453) |
HE HellYeahTraderCTR<$100 | Yesavg 41.2¢ | $79.17 | $9.61 | -$78.21 | 55% 205-167 (372) |
XT xtxpleasecallme<$100 | Noavg 57¢ | $2.28 | $3.12 | +$0.84 | 36% 14490-25940 (40430) |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
22.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.