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NoYesYes
LucerysCTR<$100YesYesYes
Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Yes — but No won instead.
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 8°C on November 9?
Resolved No. 83% of the top Polymarket traders held Yes. The smart money was wrong.
RESOLVED
💀
Lost
Consensus Traders
6
Yes 67%
Total Value
$35
Combined PnL
-$3.67
Smart Money Signal
Yes
5 of 6 top traders (83%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Market Activity
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Outcome Probabilities
Yes0%
No100%
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
No1 trader
Total Value$35
Total Shares35
Combined PnL+$0.04
Yes5 traders
Total Value$0
Total Shares41
Combined PnL-$3.71
No — 17%Yes — 83%
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1D 1DVSBSTD<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $34.96 | $35 | +$0.04 | 97% 59786-1869 (61655) |
LU luciebotCTR<$100 | Yesavg 9.1¢ | $3.48 | — | -$3.48 | 22% 3495-12142 (15637) |
AN anothercoinCTR<$100 | Yesavg 9.1¢ | $0.22 | — | -$0.22 | 35% 1183-2186 (3369) |
LucerysCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0¢ | — | — | +$0 | 43% 18729-24498 (43227) |
QW qwen300.fundCTR<$100 | Yes | — | — | +$0 | 47% 47657-54243 (101900) |
12 123987456CTR<$100 | Yesavg 4¢ | — | — | +$0 | 30% 2958-6851 (9809) |
1D
1DVSBSTD<$100Invested
$34.96
Value
$35
PnL
+$0.04
Record
97%
59786-1869 (61655)
LU
luciebotCTR<$100Invested
$3.48
Value
—
PnL
-$3.48
Record
22%
3495-12142 (15637)
AN
anothercoinCTR<$100Invested
$0.22
Value
—
PnL
-$0.22
Record
35%
1183-2186 (3369)
LucerysCTR<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
43%
18729-24498 (43227)
QW
qwen300.fundCTR<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
47%
47657-54243 (101900)
12
123987456CTR<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
30%
2958-6851 (9809)
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Market Info
Condition ID
0xa2163d8d...5e0898
Slug
highest-temperature-in-wuhan-on-november-9-2026-8c