Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (55%). 3 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 13°C on November 9?

3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (50%) · Yes at 46¢ · $294 held · ends Nov 9

Yes46¢No54¢Ends Mon, Nov 9, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 50%

Total Value

$293.61

Combined PnL

$34.7

Smart Money Entry

42.4¢ → 45.5¢

+7% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 46%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 6 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors No 55%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes46%

No55%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes3 traders

Total Value$267.04

Total Shares553

Combined PnL+$36.75

No3 traders

Total Value$26.57

Total Shares50

Combined PnL-$2.05

Yes — 50%No — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR	Yesavg 42.4¢	$219.58	$251.45	+$31.88	21% 929-3491 (4420)
HE HellYeahTraderCTR<$100	Yesavg 44¢	$13.31	$13.77	+$0.45	57% 903-691 (1594)
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 56¢	$11.12	$10.82	-$0.3	50% 65477-65792 (131269)
Roflan-ludoman<$100	Noavg 61¢	$12.2	$10.3	-$1.9	61% 725-457 (1182)
Lucerys<$100	Noavg 53¢	$5.3	$5.45	+$0.15	43% 18503-24146 (42649)
IstarothCTR<$100	Yesavg 41.5¢	$22.4	$1.82	+$4.42	13% 675-4577 (5252)

0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR

Yes

Invested

$219.58

Value

$251.45

PnL

+$31.88

Record

21%

929-3491 (4420)

HellYeahTraderCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$13.31

Value

$13.77

PnL

+$0.45

Record

57%

903-691 (1594)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$11.12

Value

$10.82

PnL

-$0.3

Record

50%

65477-65792 (131269)

Roflan-ludoman<$100

Invested

$12.2

Value

$10.3

PnL

-$1.9

Record

61%

725-457 (1182)

Lucerys<$100

Invested

$5.3

Value

$5.45

PnL

+$0.15

Record

43%

18503-24146 (42649)

IstarothCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$22.4

Value

$1.82

PnL

+$4.42

Record

13%

675-4577 (5252)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 46%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 6 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors No 55%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance47.7%

45.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$109.45

Max Loss

-$100.00

209.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.