Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 12°C on November 9?

11 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold No (85%) · No at 60¢ · $195 held · ends Nov 9

Yes40¢No60¢Ends Mon, Nov 9, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 85%

Total Value

$194.79

Combined PnL

-$15.24

Smart Money Entry

66¢ → 60¢

-9% since entry · 11 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 60%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

11 of 13 top traders (85%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes40%

No60%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No11 traders

Total Value$177.79

Total Shares284

Combined PnL-$18.84

Yes2 traders

Total Value$17

Total Shares40

Combined PnL+$3.6

No — 85%Yes — 15%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 95%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 95% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on Yes) and the top 1000 (3 on No) disagree here.

whaleYes 100% · 2

Diverging

ctrYes 67% · 3

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000No 100% · 3

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0<$100	Noavg 73.9¢	$49.73	$42.42	-$7.32	21% 929-3491 (4420)
PO Poligarch<$100	Noavg 61.2¢	$35.98	$31.93	-$4.05	55% 25974-21276 (47250)
Lucerys<$100	Noavg 62.5¢	$27.55	$26.22	-$1.33	43% 18507-24169 (42676)
2B9S<$100	Noavg 58¢	$18.6	$20	+$1.4	15% 4979-29161 (34140)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100	Noavg 65¢	$16.83	$13.98	-$2.85	30% 2853-6533 (9386)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 73.5¢	$16.83	$13.82	-$3.01	57% 24691-18283 (42974)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100	Noavg 61¢	$12.34	$12.04	-$0.3	70% 16761-7351 (24112)
IstarothCTR<$100	Yesavg 31¢	$6.2	$8.5	+$2.3	13% 680-4591 (5271)
Roflan-ludomanCTR<$100	Yesavg 36¢	$7.2	$8.5	+$1.3	61% 725-457 (1182)
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100	Noavg 54.7¢	$8.37	$8.19	-$0.18	50% 9315-9358 (18673)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100	Noavg 63¢	$3.19	$3.57	+$0.38	46% 6626-7759 (14385)
12 123987456<$100	Noavg 84¢	$3.93	$2.9	-$1.03	30% 2917-6663 (9580)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100	Noavg 65¢	$3.28	$2.73	-$0.56	46% 6881-8137 (15018)

0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0<$100

Invested

$49.73

Value

$42.42

PnL

-$7.32

Record

21%

929-3491 (4420)

Poligarch<$100

Invested

$35.98

Value

$31.93

PnL

-$4.05

Record

55%

25974-21276 (47250)

Lucerys<$100

Invested

$27.55

Value

$26.22

PnL

-$1.33

Record

43%

18507-24169 (42676)

2B9S<$100

Invested

$18.6

Value

$20

PnL

+$1.4

Record

15%

4979-29161 (34140)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100

Invested

$16.83

Value

$13.98

PnL

-$2.85

Record

30%

2853-6533 (9386)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$16.83

Value

$13.82

PnL

-$3.01

Record

57%

24691-18283 (42974)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100

Invested

$12.34

Value

$12.04

PnL

-$0.3

Record

70%

16761-7351 (24112)

IstarothCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$6.2

Value

$8.5

PnL

+$2.3

Record

13%

680-4591 (5271)

Roflan-ludomanCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$7.2

Value

$8.5

PnL

+$1.3

Record

61%

725-457 (1182)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100

Invested

$8.37

Value

$8.19

PnL

-$0.18

Record

50%

9315-9358 (18673)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100

Invested

$3.19

Value

$3.57

PnL

+$0.38

Record

46%

6626-7759 (14385)

123987456<$100

Invested

$3.93

Value

$2.9

PnL

-$1.03

Record

30%

2917-6663 (9580)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100

Invested

$3.28

Value

$2.73

PnL

-$0.56

Record

46%

6881-8137 (15018)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 60%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

11 of 13 top traders (85%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 95%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 95% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on Yes) and the top 1000 (3 on No) disagree here.

whaleYes 100% · 2

Diverging

ctrYes 67% · 3

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000No 100% · 3

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance62.2%

60.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$60.80

Max Loss

-$100.00

160.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.