Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (52%). 2 of 10 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 16°C on November 8?

2 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (20%) · Yes at 48¢ · $432 held · ends Nov 8

Yes48¢No52¢Ends Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 20%

Total Value

$431.83

Combined PnL

-$9.15

Smart Money Entry

36¢ → 48¢

+33% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 48%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

2 of 10 top traders (20%)Underdog side (market favors No 52%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes48%

No52%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes2 traders

Total Value$247.4

Total Shares627

Combined PnL+$21.67

No8 traders

Total Value$184.43

Total Shares287

Combined PnL-$30.83

Yes — 20%No — 80%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR	Yesavg 35.4¢	$202.42	$239.91	+$37.49	39% 900-1436 (2336)
LU luciebot<$100	Noavg 84.8¢	$92.12	$48.89	-$43.22	28% 3048-7956 (11004)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100	Noavg 79.1¢	$36.43	$39.83	+$3.4	36% 1206-2165 (3371)
Lucerys<$100	Noavg 69.1¢	$25.29	$31.85	+$6.57	45% 18006-22281 (40287)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100	Noavg 64¢	$19.59	$26.49	+$6.9	47% 2105-2397 (4502)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100	Noavg 66.1¢	$20.82	$14.18	-$6.64	39% 1314-2061 (3375)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100	Noavg 64.7¢	$9.01	$12.18	+$3.17	53% 8890-8041 (16931)
HE HellYeahTraderCTR<$100	Yesavg 42¢	$23.31	$7.49	-$15.82	56% 829-641 (1470)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 71.7¢	$24.3	$6.65	-$1.21	58% 23579-16943 (40522)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100	Noavg 83¢	$4.16	$4.36	+$0.2	39% 1311-2070 (3381)

0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR

Yes

Invested

$202.42

Value

$239.91

PnL

+$37.49

Record

39%

900-1436 (2336)

luciebot<$100

Invested

$92.12

Value

$48.89

PnL

-$43.22

Record

28%

3048-7956 (11004)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100

Invested

$36.43

Value

$39.83

PnL

+$3.4

Record

36%

1206-2165 (3371)

Lucerys<$100

Invested

$25.29

Value

$31.85

PnL

+$6.57

Record

45%

18006-22281 (40287)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100

Invested

$19.59

Value

$26.49

PnL

+$6.9

Record

47%

2105-2397 (4502)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100

Invested

$20.82

Value

$14.18

PnL

-$6.64

Record

39%

1314-2061 (3375)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100

Invested

$9.01

Value

$12.18

PnL

+$3.17

Record

53%

8890-8041 (16931)

HellYeahTraderCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$23.31

Value

$7.49

PnL

-$15.82

Record

56%

829-641 (1470)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$24.3

Value

$6.65

PnL

-$1.21

Record

58%

23579-16943 (40522)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100

Invested

$4.16

Value

$4.36

PnL

+$0.2

Record

39%

1311-2070 (3381)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 48%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

2 of 10 top traders (20%)Underdog side (market favors No 52%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance50.2%

48.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$99.01

Max Loss

-$100.00

199.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.