Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 18°C on November 4?

14 of 16 top Polymarket traders hold No (88%) · No at 100¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 4

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Wed, Nov 4, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 88%

Total Value

$1.2K

Combined PnL

$107.1

Smart Money Entry

90.6¢ → 100¢

+10% since entry · 13 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

14 of 16 top traders (88%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No14 traders

Total Value$1.2K

Total Shares1,235

Combined PnL+$108.07

Yes2 traders

Total Value$0.45

Total Shares57

Combined PnL-$0.97

No — 88%Yes — 12%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

-6 pts consensus

Breadth

15 traders

Top 2 hold 57%

Freshness

Mature

39h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

88% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 57% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 88% · 17

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0	Noavg 80.1¢	$381.46	$426.4	+$83.74	44% 789-985 (1774)
24 241532532432	Noavg 95.8¢	$258.61	$269.19	+$10.58	58% 2476-1805 (4281)
GH ghorrock	Noavg 92.8¢	$109.8	$108.92	+$7.78	58% 19232-14159 (33391)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100	Noavg 99.7¢	$69.3	$69.36	+$0.06	39% 1012-1603 (2615)
NO northdrawer<$100	No	$59.82	$59.82	+$0	61% 15751-10045 (25796)
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100	Noavg 99.6¢	$58.3	$58.35	+$0.06	55% 4369-3567 (7936)
LU luciebot<$100	Noavg 99.8¢	$52.81	$52.83	+$0.02	31% 2304-5170 (7474)
QW qwen300.fund<$100	Noavg 99.8¢	$45.98	$46.05	+$0.07	60% 11636-7873 (19509)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100	Noavg 99.4¢	$36.96	$37.18	+$0.22	47% 2092-2375 (4467)
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100	Noavg 86.7¢	$35.25	$35.38	+$5.2	39% 1023-1615 (2638)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100	Noavg 99.8¢	$29.51	$29.48	-$0.03	40% 2112-3153 (5265)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100	Noavg 99.8¢	$29.03	$29.07	+$0.04	47% 1638-1811 (3449)
Lucerys<$100	Noavg 95.3¢	$26.27	$7.56	+$0.34	78% 12157-3379 (15536)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100	Noavg 99.6¢	$1.98	$1.98	+$0	41% 1149-1645 (2794)
PO PoligarchCTR<$100	Yesavg 6.3¢	$1.85	$0.24	-$1.62	53% 9883-8605 (18488)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100	Yesavg 3.8¢	$37.37	$0.22	+$0.65	20% 2544-10095 (12639)

0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0

Invested

$381.46

Value

$426.4

PnL

+$83.74

Record

44%

789-985 (1774)

241532532432

Invested

$258.61

Value

$269.19

PnL

+$10.58

Record

58%

2476-1805 (4281)

ghorrock

Invested

$109.8

Value

$108.92

PnL

+$7.78

Record

58%

19232-14159 (33391)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100

Invested

$69.3

Value

$69.36

PnL

+$0.06

Record

39%

1012-1603 (2615)

northdrawer<$100

Invested

$59.82

Value

$59.82

PnL

+$0

Record

61%

15751-10045 (25796)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100

Invested

$58.3

Value

$58.35

PnL

+$0.06

Record

55%

4369-3567 (7936)

luciebot<$100

Invested

$52.81

Value

$52.83

PnL

+$0.02

Record

31%

2304-5170 (7474)

qwen300.fund<$100

Invested

$45.98

Value

$46.05

PnL

+$0.07

Record

60%

11636-7873 (19509)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100

Invested

$36.96

Value

$37.18

PnL

+$0.22

Record

47%

2092-2375 (4467)

0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100

Invested

$35.25

Value

$35.38

PnL

+$5.2

Record

39%

1023-1615 (2638)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100

Invested

$29.51

Value

$29.48

PnL

-$0.03

Record

40%

2112-3153 (5265)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100

Invested

$29.03

Value

$29.07

PnL

+$0.04

Record

47%

1638-1811 (3449)

Lucerys<$100

Invested

$26.27

Value

$7.56

PnL

+$0.34

Record

78%

12157-3379 (15536)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100

Invested

$1.98

Value

$1.98

PnL

+$0

Record

41%

1149-1645 (2794)

PoligarchCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.85

Value

$0.24

PnL

-$1.62

Record

53%

9883-8605 (18488)

LornaPredictsCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$37.37

Value

$0.22

PnL

+$0.65

Record

20%

2544-10095 (12639)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

14 of 16 top traders (88%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

-6 pts consensus

Breadth

15 traders

Top 2 hold 57%

Freshness

Mature

39h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

88% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 57% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 88% · 17

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.