Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (94%). 5 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 14°C on November 4?

5 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (56%) · Yes at 6.0¢ · $69 held · ends Nov 4

Yes6¢No94¢Ends Wed, Nov 4, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 56%

Total Value

$68.84

Combined PnL

$12.86

Research grade

AvoidYes at 6%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

5 of 9 top traders (56%)Underdog side (market favors No 94%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes6%

No94%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No4 traders

Total Value$47.38

Total Shares48

Combined PnL+$1.28

Yes5 traders

Total Value$21.45

Total Shares317

Combined PnL+$11.58

No — 44%Yes — 56%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 96%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

57% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 57% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
Lucerys<$100	Noavg 98.6¢	$22.27	$21.77	-$0.51	79% 11986-3185 (15171)
24 241532532432CTR<$100	Yesavg 0.5¢	$1.26	$17.28	+$16.02	58% 2448-1791 (4239)
PO Poligarch<$100	Noavg 91.9¢	$13.34	$14.06	+$0.72	53% 9755-8526 (18281)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 96¢	$5.7	$6.78	+$1.09	58% 18645-13742 (32387)
0X 0x9506e646497107cabf2d5b941a8e6a60d0db1c4f<$100	Noavg 94.9¢	$4.79	$4.78	-$0.01	59% 1692-1192 (2884)
NO northdrawerCTR<$100	Yes	$2.16	$2.16	-$2.28	61% 15651-9945 (25596)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100	Yesavg 10.5¢	$3.69	$1.12	-$2.57	53% 8015-7117 (15132)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225CTR<$100	Yesavg 3.5¢	$0.35	$0.73	+$0.38	40% 2075-3116 (5191)
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493CTR<$100	Yesavg 6.1¢	$0.13	$0.16	+$0.02	55% 4345-3526 (7871)

Lucerys<$100

Invested

$22.27

Value

$21.77

PnL

-$0.51

Record

79%

11986-3185 (15171)

241532532432CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.26

Value

$17.28

PnL

+$16.02

Record

58%

2448-1791 (4239)

Poligarch<$100

Invested

$13.34

Value

$14.06

PnL

+$0.72

Record

53%

9755-8526 (18281)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$5.7

Value

$6.78

PnL

+$1.09

Record

58%

18645-13742 (32387)

0x9506e646497107cabf2d5b941a8e6a60d0db1c4f<$100

Invested

$4.79

Value

$4.78

PnL

-$0.01

Record

59%

1692-1192 (2884)

northdrawerCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.16

Value

$2.16

PnL

-$2.28

Record

61%

15651-9945 (25596)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.69

Value

$1.12

PnL

-$2.57

Record

53%

8015-7117 (15132)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.35

Value

$0.73

PnL

+$0.38

Record

40%

2075-3116 (5191)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.13

Value

$0.16

PnL

+$0.02

Record

55%

4345-3526 (7871)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 6%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

5 of 9 top traders (56%)Underdog side (market favors No 94%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 96%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

57% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 57% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance7.4%

6.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$1255.45

Max Loss

-$100.00

1355.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.