Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (71%). 4 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 16°C on November 3?

4 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (57%) · Yes at 30¢ · $780 held · ends Nov 3

Yes30¢No70¢Ends Tue, Nov 3, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 57%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$780.19

Combined PnL

-$94.93

Smart Money Entry

36.8¢ → 29.5¢

-20% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 30%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 7 top traders (57%)Underdog side (market favors No 71%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes30%

No71%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes4 traders

Total Value$307.77

Total Shares810

Combined PnL-$94.41

No3 traders

Total Value$28.54

Total Shares33

Combined PnL-$0.53

Yes — 57%No — 43%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+17 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 96%

Freshness

Fresh

10h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on No) and the top 1000 (5 on Yes) disagree here.

whaleYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 67% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 80% · 5

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
IstarothARB<$100	Noavg 62.1¢	$381.57	$374.27	+$25.49	16% 416-2177 (2593)
└ No leg	Noavg 62.1¢	$203.83	$249.51	+$43.18
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 40.2¢	$132.01	$124.76	-$17.69
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR	Yesavg 36.9¢	$265.98	$288.1	-$91.24	47% 771-855 (1626)
PO PoligarchARB<$100	Noavg 72.1¢	$78.12	$69.62	-$8.5	52% 8735-7979 (16714)
└ No leg	Noavg 72.1¢	$45.72	$48.2	+$2.49
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 36.3¢	$32.4	$21.41	-$10.98
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 70¢	$27.93	$12.47	+$0.09	57% 17526-13092 (30618)
2B9S<$100	Noavg 77¢	$15.4	$8.46	-$0.11	18% 4096-19222 (23318)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293CTR<$100	Yes	$8.15	$8.15	-$4.78	46% 1303-1505 (2808)
QW qwen300.fund<$100	Noavg 81¢	$8.1	$7.6	-$0.5	60% 10613-7204 (17817)
CI cigarettesCTR<$100	Yesavg 25¢	$5	$7.6	+$2.6	54% 21772-18817 (40589)
HE HellYeahTraderCTR<$100	Yesavg 47.5¢	$4.91	$3.93	-$0.98	56% 593-473 (1066)

IstarothARB<$100

Invested

$381.57

Value

$374.27

PnL

+$25.49

Record

16%

416-2177 (2593)

Both legs:

No$203.8362.1¢+$43.18

Yes$132.0140.2¢-$17.69

0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR

Yes

Invested

$265.98

Value

$288.1

PnL

-$91.24

Record

47%

771-855 (1626)

PoligarchARB<$100

Invested

$78.12

Value

$69.62

PnL

-$8.5

Record

52%

8735-7979 (16714)

Both legs:

No$45.7272.1¢+$2.49

Yes$32.436.3¢-$10.98

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$27.93

Value

$12.47

PnL

+$0.09

Record

57%

17526-13092 (30618)

2B9S<$100

Invested

$15.4

Value

$8.46

PnL

-$0.11

Record

18%

4096-19222 (23318)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$8.15

Value

$8.15

PnL

-$4.78

Record

46%

1303-1505 (2808)

qwen300.fund<$100

Invested

$8.1

Value

$7.6

PnL

-$0.5

Record

60%

10613-7204 (17817)

cigarettesCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

Value

$7.6

PnL

+$2.6

Record

54%

21772-18817 (40589)

HellYeahTraderCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.91

Value

$3.93

PnL

-$0.98

Record

56%

593-473 (1066)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 30%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 7 top traders (57%)Underdog side (market favors No 71%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+17 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 96%

Freshness

Fresh

10h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on No) and the top 1000 (5 on Yes) disagree here.

whaleYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 67% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 80% · 5

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance31.6%

29.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$216.86

Max Loss

-$100.00

316.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.