Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (77%). 1 of 4 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 15°C on November 3?

1 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (25%) · Yes at 23¢ · $227 held · ends Nov 3

Yes23¢No77¢Ends Tue, Nov 3, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 25%

Total Value

$227.35

Combined PnL

$46.23

Research grade

AvoidYes at 23%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

1 of 4 top traders (25%)Underdog side (market favors No 77%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes23%

No77%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes1 trader

Total Value$172.32

Total Shares749

Combined PnL+$48.8

No3 traders

Total Value$55.03

Total Shares71

Combined PnL-$2.57

Yes — 25%No — 75%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR	Yesavg 16.5¢	$123.52	$172.32	+$48.8	47% 750-838 (1588)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 81¢	$39.69	$37.75	-$1.94	57% 17248-12904 (30152)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100	Noavg 80¢	$13.86	$13.34	-$0.52	35% 558-1046 (1604)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100	Noavg 79¢	$4.04	$3.94	-$0.1	37% 758-1274 (2032)

0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR

Yes

Invested

$123.52

Value

$172.32

PnL

+$48.8

Record

47%

750-838 (1588)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$39.69

Value

$37.75

PnL

-$1.94

Record

57%

17248-12904 (30152)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100

Invested

$13.86

Value

$13.34

PnL

-$0.52

Record

35%

558-1046 (1604)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100

Invested

$4.04

Value

$3.94

PnL

-$0.1

Record

37%

758-1274 (2032)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 23%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

1 of 4 top traders (25%)Underdog side (market favors No 77%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance24.9%

23.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$301.41

Max Loss

-$100.00

401.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.