Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 21°C on November 15?

9 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold No (90%) · No at 100¢ · $199 held · ends Nov 15

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 90%

Total Value

$198.86

Combined PnL

-$4.87

Smart Money Entry

98.5¢ → 99.8¢

+1% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

9 of 10 top traders (90%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No9 traders

Total Value$197.39

Total Shares200

Combined PnL-$6.2

Yes1 trader

Total Value$1.47

Total Shares70

Combined PnL+$1.33

No — 90%Yes — 10%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100	Noavg 99.8¢	$76.4	$76.37	-$0.03	50% 894-902 (1796)
24 241532532432<$100	Noavg 96¢	$48	$47.95	-$0.05	42% 760-1068 (1828)
LU luciebot<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$76.95	$19.3	-$6.67	24% 762-2435 (3197)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100	Noavg 99.5¢	$15.02	$15.05	+$0.02	52% 916-856 (1772)
1D 1DVSBSTD<$100	Noavg 96.5¢	$14.59	$14.86	+$0.27	99% 1517-23 (1540)
0X 0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354<$100	Noavg 99.6¢	$10.27	$10.16	-$0.11	59% 843-574 (1417)
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100	Noavg 99.3¢	$7.63	$7.55	-$0.08	58% 839-597 (1436)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100	Noavg 99.6¢	$5.02	$4.94	-$0.08	53% 882-796 (1678)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.2¢	$0.14	$1.47	+$1.33	14% 98-587 (685)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 97.4¢	$24.92	$1.22	+$0.53	52% 2195-1999 (4194)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100

Invested

$76.4

Value

$76.37

PnL

-$0.03

Record

50%

894-902 (1796)

241532532432<$100

Invested

$48

Value

$47.95

PnL

-$0.05

Record

42%

760-1068 (1828)

luciebot<$100

Invested

$76.95

Value

$19.3

PnL

-$6.67

Record

24%

762-2435 (3197)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100

Invested

$15.02

Value

$15.05

PnL

+$0.02

Record

52%

916-856 (1772)

1DVSBSTD<$100

Invested

$14.59

Value

$14.86

PnL

+$0.27

Record

99%

1517-23 (1540)

0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354<$100

Invested

$10.27

Value

$10.16

PnL

-$0.11

Record

59%

843-574 (1417)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100

Invested

$7.63

Value

$7.55

PnL

-$0.08

Record

58%

839-597 (1436)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100

Invested

$5.02

Value

$4.94

PnL

-$0.08

Record

53%

882-796 (1678)

LornaPredictsCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.14

Value

$1.47

PnL

+$1.33

Record

14%

98-587 (685)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$24.92

Value

$1.22

PnL

+$0.53

Record

52%

2195-1999 (4194)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

9 of 10 top traders (90%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.