Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 20°C on November 15?
9 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold No (90%) · No at 98¢ · $105 held · ends Nov 15
⚖️
Neutral
No
10
No 90%
$105
-$23.91
95.6¢ → 98.2¢
+3% since entry · 9 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 98%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
9 of 10 top traders (90%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
24 241532532432<$100 | Noavg 95.2¢ | $59.02 | $20.68 | -$18.34 | 42% 760-1068 (1828) |
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100 | Noavg 97¢ | $20.02 | $20.22 | +$0.2 | 50% 894-902 (1796) |
LU luciebot<$100 | Noavg 99.4¢ | $86.74 | $19.85 | -$4.69 | 24% 762-2435 (3197) |
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100 | Noavg 92.3¢ | $16.61 | $17.29 | +$0.68 | 53% 882-796 (1678) |
0X 0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354<$100 | Noavg 97.1¢ | $12.93 | $7.91 | +$0.23 | 59% 843-574 (1417) |
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100 | Noavg 99¢ | $7 | $6.94 | -$0.06 | 47% 870-964 (1834) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 94¢ | $28.3 | $4.97 | -$1.55 | 52% 2195-1999 (4194) |
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100 | Noavg 87.1¢ | $4.39 | $4.93 | +$0.55 | 58% 839-597 (1436) |
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100 | Noavg 86.2¢ | $1.53 | $1.67 | +$0.14 | 47% 1212-1371 (2583) |
 LornaPredictsCTR<$100 | Yesavg 2.4¢ | $1.61 | $0.54 | -$1.06 | 14% 98-587 (685) |
Invested
$59.02
Value
$20.68
PnL
-$18.34
Record
42%
760-1068 (1828)
Invested
$20.02
Value
$20.22
PnL
+$0.2
Record
50%
894-902 (1796)
Invested
$86.74
Value
$19.85
PnL
-$4.69
Record
24%
762-2435 (3197)
Invested
$16.61
Value
$17.29
PnL
+$0.68
Record
53%
882-796 (1678)
Invested
$12.93
Value
$7.91
PnL
+$0.23
Record
59%
843-574 (1417)
Invested
$7
Value
$6.94
PnL
-$0.06
Record
47%
870-964 (1834)
Invested
$28.3
Value
$4.97
PnL
-$1.55
Record
52%
2195-1999 (4194)
Invested
$4.39
Value
$4.93
PnL
+$0.55
Record
58%
839-597 (1436)
Invested
$1.53
Value
$1.67
PnL
+$0.14
Record
47%
1212-1371 (2583)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100Invested
$1.61
Value
$0.54
PnL
-$1.06
Record
14%
98-587 (685)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
98.2¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.
Market Info
Traders in this Market
241532532432
No — $20.68
0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579
No — $20.22
luciebot
No — $19.85
0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702
No — $17.29
0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354
No — $7.91
0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023
No — $6.94
ghorrock
No — $4.97
0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493
No — $4.93
0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225
No — $1.67
LornaPredicts
CTRYes — $0.54