Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 19°C on November 15?

9 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold No (90%) · No at 88¢ · $197 held · ends Nov 15

Yes13¢No87¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 90%

Total Value

$197.35

Combined PnL

$18.24

Smart Money Entry

82¢ → 87.5¢

+7% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 88%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

9 of 10 top traders (90%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes13%

No88%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes1 trader

Total Value$88.34

Total Shares294

Combined PnL+$18.39

No9 traders

Total Value$109

Total Shares124

Combined PnL-$0.15

Yes — 10%No — 90%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR<$100	Yesavg 23.8¢	$69.95	$88.34	+$18.39	54% 1120-958 (2078)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100	Noavg 86.5¢	$34.08	$33.89	-$0.18	47% 870-964 (1834)
LU luciebot<$100	Noavg 91¢	$58.35	$20.82	+$3.58	24% 762-2435 (3197)
PO Poligarch<$100	Noavg 87¢	$14.56	$13.21	-$1.35	71% 919-377 (1296)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100	Noavg 78.8¢	$10.49	$11.12	+$0.63	53% 882-796 (1678)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 67.2¢	$10.09	$9.85	-$0.24	52% 2195-1999 (4194)
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100	Noavg 81.1¢	$8.36	$7.89	-$0.47	58% 839-597 (1436)
24 241532532432<$100	Noavg 82¢	$19.17	$6.08	-$2.44	42% 760-1068 (1828)
0X 0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354<$100	Noavg 60¢	$4.61	$4.99	+$0.38	59% 843-574 (1417)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100	Noavg 68¢	$1.21	$1.16	-$0.05	49% 828-850 (1678)

0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$69.95

Value

$88.34

PnL

+$18.39

Record

54%

1120-958 (2078)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100

Invested

$34.08

Value

$33.89

PnL

-$0.18

Record

47%

870-964 (1834)

luciebot<$100

Invested

$58.35

Value

$20.82

PnL

+$3.58

Record

24%

762-2435 (3197)

Poligarch<$100

Invested

$14.56

Value

$13.21

PnL

-$1.35

Record

71%

919-377 (1296)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100

Invested

$10.49

Value

$11.12

PnL

+$0.63

Record

53%

882-796 (1678)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$10.09

Value

$9.85

PnL

-$0.24

Record

52%

2195-1999 (4194)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100

Invested

$8.36

Value

$7.89

PnL

-$0.47

Record

58%

839-597 (1436)

241532532432<$100

Invested

$19.17

Value

$6.08

PnL

-$2.44

Record

42%

760-1068 (1828)

0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354<$100

Invested

$4.61

Value

$4.99

PnL

+$0.38

Record

59%

843-574 (1417)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100

Invested

$1.21

Value

$1.16

PnL

-$0.05

Record

49%

828-850 (1678)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 88%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

9 of 10 top traders (90%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance89.0%

87.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$12.35

Max Loss

-$100.00

112.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.