Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (86%). 11 of 14 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 18°C on November 15?

11 of 14 top Polymarket traders hold No (79%) · No at 14¢ · $172 held · ends Nov 15

Yes86¢No14¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Consensus Traders

No 79%

Total Value

$172

Combined PnL

$146.97

Research grade

AvoidNo at 14%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

11 of 14 top traders (79%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 86%)11 hold an outcome priced under 50%14 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes86%

No14%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes3 traders

Total Value$123.64

Total Shares313

Combined PnL+$53.91

No11 traders

Total Value$48.36

Total Shares182

Combined PnL+$93.07

Yes — 21%No — 79%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HE hello.67<$100	Yesavg 32.3¢	$68.43	$83.7	+$15.27	53% 2329-2055 (4384)
24 241532532432<$100	Yesavg 34¢	$29.97	$25.14	+$8.07	42% 760-1068 (1828)
Haradwaith<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$9.09	$14.79	+$30.57	29% 266-655 (921)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702CTR<$100	Noavg 17.6¢	$5.44	$10.34	+$4.9	53% 882-796 (1678)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293CTR<$100	Noavg 16.5¢	$2.85	$5.81	+$2.95	49% 828-850 (1678)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225CTR<$100	Noavg 17¢	$2.75	$5.43	+$2.68	47% 1212-1371 (2583)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343CTR<$100	Noavg 16.9¢	$2.74	$5.41	+$2.68	52% 916-856 (1772)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023CTR<$100	Noavg 22.8¢	$7.06	$5.11	-$1.95	47% 870-964 (1834)
0X 0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354CTR<$100	Noavg 16¢	$6.17	$3.72	+$22.38	59% 843-574 (1417)
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493CTR<$100	Noavg 16¢	$2.89	$3.43	+$0.54	58% 839-597 (1436)
LU luciebotCTR<$100	Noavg 12¢	$11.4	$3.3	+$56.51	24% 762-2435 (3197)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Noavg 16¢	$1.42	$2.98	+$1.56	52% 2195-1999 (4194)
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658CTR<$100	Noavg 13¢	$0.92	$1.45	+$0.53	57% 812-615 (1427)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579CTR<$100	Noavg 21¢	$1.09	$1.38	+$0.29	50% 894-902 (1796)

hello.67<$100

Yes

Invested

$68.43

Value

$83.7

PnL

+$15.27

Record

53%

2329-2055 (4384)

241532532432<$100

Yes

Invested

$29.97

Value

$25.14

PnL

+$8.07

Record

42%

760-1068 (1828)

Haradwaith<$100

Yes

Invested

$9.09

Value

$14.79

PnL

+$30.57

Record

29%

266-655 (921)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702CTR<$100

Invested

$5.44

Value

$10.34

PnL

+$4.9

Record

53%

882-796 (1678)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293CTR<$100

Invested

$2.85

Value

$5.81

PnL

+$2.95

Record

49%

828-850 (1678)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225CTR<$100

Invested

$2.75

Value

$5.43

PnL

+$2.68

Record

47%

1212-1371 (2583)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343CTR<$100

Invested

$2.74

Value

$5.41

PnL

+$2.68

Record

52%

916-856 (1772)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023CTR<$100

Invested

$7.06

Value

$5.11

PnL

-$1.95

Record

47%

870-964 (1834)

0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354CTR<$100

Invested

$6.17

Value

$3.72

PnL

+$22.38

Record

59%

843-574 (1417)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493CTR<$100

Invested

$2.89

Value

$3.43

PnL

+$0.54

Record

58%

839-597 (1436)

luciebotCTR<$100

Invested

$11.4

Value

$3.3

PnL

+$56.51

Record

24%

762-2435 (3197)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Invested

$1.42

Value

$2.98

PnL

+$1.56

Record

52%

2195-1999 (4194)

0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658CTR<$100

Invested

$0.92

Value

$1.45

PnL

+$0.53

Record

57%

812-615 (1427)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579CTR<$100

Invested

$1.09

Value

$1.38

PnL

+$0.29

Record

50%

894-902 (1796)

Research grade

AvoidNo at 14%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

11 of 14 top traders (79%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 86%)11 hold an outcome priced under 50%14 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance16.2%

14.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$519.01

Max Loss

-$100.00

619.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.