Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 20°C on November 14?

8 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 100¢ · $103 held · ends Nov 14

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 80%

Total Value

$102.64

Combined PnL

-$4.89

Smart Money Entry

99.3¢ → 99.5¢

+0% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 10 top traders (80%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes1%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No8 traders

Total Value$102.06

Total Shares103

Combined PnL+$0.02

Yes2 traders

Total Value$0.58

Total Shares65

Combined PnL-$4.91

No — 80%Yes — 20%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+6 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 53%

Freshness

Fresh

12h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

89% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 53% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 89% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GO god83743894<$100	Noavg 99.5¢	$29.86	$29.79	-$0.07	34% 231-458 (689)
NO northdrawer<$100	Noavg 99.4¢	$22.66	$22.64	-$0.02	29% 1096-2660 (3756)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 98.6¢	$15.51	$15.62	+$0.11	53% 1572-1421 (2993)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100	Noavg 99.3¢	$11.06	$11.06	-$0	48% 757-814 (1571)
1D 1DVSBSTD<$100	Noavg 99.4¢	$7	$7.01	+$0.01	99% 1195-12 (1207)
balthazar<$100	Noavg 99.3¢	$5.85	$5.85	+$0	44% 5036-6461 (11497)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100	Noavg 99.3¢	$5.08	$5.08	-$0	51% 782-754 (1536)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100	Noavg 99.3¢	$5	$5	-$0	50% 697-689 (1386)
HE hello.67CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$5.44	$0.54	-$4.9	56% 2268-1802 (4070)
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493CTR<$100	Yesavg 1¢	$0.05	$0.04	-$0.01	58% 699-503 (1202)

god83743894<$100

Invested

$29.86

Value

$29.79

PnL

-$0.07

Record

34%

231-458 (689)

northdrawer<$100

Invested

$22.66

Value

$22.64

PnL

-$0.02

Record

29%

1096-2660 (3756)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$15.51

Value

$15.62

PnL

+$0.11

Record

53%

1572-1421 (2993)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100

Invested

$11.06

Value

$11.06

PnL

-$0

Record

48%

757-814 (1571)

1DVSBSTD<$100

Invested

Value

$7.01

PnL

+$0.01

Record

99%

1195-12 (1207)

balthazar<$100

Invested

$5.85

Value

$5.85

PnL

+$0

Record

44%

5036-6461 (11497)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100

Invested

$5.08

Value

$5.08

PnL

-$0

Record

51%

782-754 (1536)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100

Invested

Value

PnL

-$0

Record

50%

697-689 (1386)

hello.67CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.44

Value

$0.54

PnL

-$4.9

Record

56%

2268-1802 (4070)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.05

Value

$0.04

PnL

-$0.01

Record

58%

699-503 (1202)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 10 top traders (80%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+6 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 53%

Freshness

Fresh

12h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

89% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 53% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 89% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.