Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 19°C on November 14?

8 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 99¢ · $534 held · ends Nov 14

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 80%

Total Value

$534.01

Combined PnL

-$5.29

Smart Money Entry

97.2¢ → 99.1¢

+2% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 10 top traders (80%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes1%

No99%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No8 traders

Total Value$531.73

Total Shares549

Combined PnL-$1.97

Yes2 traders

Total Value$2.28

Total Shares65

Combined PnL-$3.32

No — 80%Yes — 20%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+3 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 77%

Freshness

Mature

14h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

89% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 77% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 89% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
24 241532532432	Noavg 97.1¢	$349.73	$348.48	-$1.25	40% 620-939 (1559)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 97.2¢	$58.3	$58.08	-$0.22	53% 1572-1421 (2993)
HA haveagoodday<$100	Noavg 97.1¢	$51.28	$51.11	-$0.17	42% 1621-2282 (3903)
12 123987456<$100	Noavg 97.5¢	$48.77	$48.4	-$0.37	29% 62-155 (217)
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100	Noavg 96.8¢	$10.78	$10.78	-$0	58% 679-500 (1179)
1D 1DVSBSTD<$100	Noavg 98.3¢	$5	$5.04	+$0.04	99% 1195-12 (1207)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100	Noavg 96.8¢	$4.96	$4.96	-$0	46% 1071-1282 (2353)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100	Noavg 96.8¢	$4.88	$4.88	-$0	48% 757-814 (1571)
HE hello.67CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$5.44	$2.12	-$3.31	56% 2268-1802 (4070)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023CTR<$100	Yesavg 3.3¢	$0.17	$0.16	-$0.01	49% 731-768 (1499)

241532532432

Invested

$349.73

Value

$348.48

PnL

-$1.25

Record

40%

620-939 (1559)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$58.3

Value

$58.08

PnL

-$0.22

Record

53%

1572-1421 (2993)

haveagoodday<$100

Invested

$51.28

Value

$51.11

PnL

-$0.17

Record

42%

1621-2282 (3903)

123987456<$100

Invested

$48.77

Value

$48.4

PnL

-$0.37

Record

29%

62-155 (217)

0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100

Invested

$10.78

Value

$10.78

PnL

-$0

Record

58%

679-500 (1179)

1DVSBSTD<$100

Invested

Value

$5.04

PnL

+$0.04

Record

99%

1195-12 (1207)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100

Invested

$4.96

Value

$4.96

PnL

-$0

Record

46%

1071-1282 (2353)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100

Invested

$4.88

Value

$4.88

PnL

-$0

Record

48%

757-814 (1571)

hello.67CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.44

Value

$2.12

PnL

-$3.31

Record

56%

2268-1802 (4070)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.17

Value

$0.16

PnL

-$0.01

Record

49%

731-768 (1499)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 10 top traders (80%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+3 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 77%

Freshness

Mature

14h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

89% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 77% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 89% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.