Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 18°C on November 14?
10 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 97¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 14
⚖️
Neutral
No
10
No 100%
$1.2K
$148.09
86.3¢ → 97.2¢
+13% since entry · 10 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 97%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
10 of 10 top traders (100%)7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Building
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
10 traders
Top 2 hold 62%
Freshness
Mature
16h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 62% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98 | Noavg 79.4¢ | $322.45 | $398.35 | +$75.9 | 55% 1208-979 (2187) |
24 241532532432 | Noavg 90.3¢ | $336.66 | $353.7 | +$27.78 | 40% 620-939 (1559) |
HE hello.67 | Noavg 88.9¢ | $362.3 | $341.15 | +$35.56 | 56% 2268-1802 (4070) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 89.8¢ | $57.93 | $43.05 | +$2.49 | 53% 1572-1421 (2993) |
QU quietparcel<$100 | Noavg 91¢ | $27.3 | $29.43 | +$2.13 | 33% 220-451 (671) |
MI mildwindow27<$100 | Noavg 84¢ | $19.15 | $22.37 | +$3.21 | 30% 1026-2400 (3426) |
0X 0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354<$100 | Noavg 98.1¢ | $10.93 | $10.93 | +$0 | 63% 714-428 (1142) |
PO Poligarch<$100 | Noavg 86¢ | $6.14 | $7.01 | +$0.86 | 72% 823-323 (1146) |
 balthazar<$100 | Noavg 98.1¢ | $5.78 | $5.78 | +$0 | 44% 5036-6461 (11497) |
12 123987456<$100 | Noavg 95¢ | $4.75 | $4.91 | +$0.16 | 29% 62-155 (217) |
Invested
$322.45
Value
$398.35
PnL
+$75.9
Record
55%
1208-979 (2187)
Invested
$336.66
Value
$353.7
PnL
+$27.78
Record
40%
620-939 (1559)
Invested
$362.3
Value
$341.15
PnL
+$35.56
Record
56%
2268-1802 (4070)
Invested
$57.93
Value
$43.05
PnL
+$2.49
Record
53%
1572-1421 (2993)
Invested
$27.3
Value
$29.43
PnL
+$2.13
Record
33%
220-451 (671)
Invested
$19.15
Value
$22.37
PnL
+$3.21
Record
30%
1026-2400 (3426)
Invested
$10.93
Value
$10.93
PnL
+$0
Record
63%
714-428 (1142)
Invested
$6.14
Value
$7.01
PnL
+$0.86
Record
72%
823-323 (1146)
balthazar<$100Invested
$5.78
Value
$5.78
PnL
+$0
Record
44%
5036-6461 (11497)
Invested
$4.75
Value
$4.91
PnL
+$0.16
Record
29%
62-155 (217)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
97.2¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.
Market Info
Traders in this Market
0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98
No — $398.35
241532532432
No — $353.7
hello.67
No — $341.15
ghorrock
No — $43.05
quietparcel
No — $29.43
mildwindow27
No — $22.37
0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354
No — $10.93
Poligarch
No — $7.01
balthazar
No — $5.78
123987456
No — $4.91