Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 17°C on November 14?

8 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 91¢ · $146 held · ends Nov 14

Yes9¢No91¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 80%

Total Value

$145.99

Combined PnL

$8.91

Smart Money Entry

86.9¢ → 91¢

+5% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 91%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 10 top traders (80%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes9%

No91%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No8 traders

Total Value$141.33

Total Shares152

Combined PnL+$7.72

Yes2 traders

Total Value$4.66

Total Shares35

Combined PnL+$1.19

No — 80%Yes — 20%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 46%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

86% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 46% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 86% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
PO Poligarch<$100	Noavg 87.4¢	$26.53	$27.73	+$1.2	72% 829-328 (1157)
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100	Noavg 93.4¢	$27.5	$27.24	-$0.25	58% 703-504 (1207)
GO godblessme2026<$100	Noavg 65¢	$14.82	$21.43	+$6.61	34% 263-521 (784)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100	Noavg 93¢	$19.88	$19.14	-$0.75	51% 787-755 (1542)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 84.5¢	$14.79	$16.45	+$1.66	52% 1608-1475 (3083)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100	Noavg 93.3¢	$15.71	$14.85	-$0.86	46% 1077-1282 (2359)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100	Noavg 94¢	$9.67	$9.67	+$0	51% 746-711 (1457)
0X 0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354<$100	Noavg 92¢	$4.71	$4.81	+$0.1	63% 716-429 (1145)
24 241532532432CTR<$100	Yesavg 13.3¢	$29.6	$3.64	+$1.42	40% 625-948 (1573)
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658CTR<$100	Yesavg 14.7¢	$1.25	$1.02	-$0.23	58% 684-501 (1185)

Poligarch<$100

Invested

$26.53

Value

$27.73

PnL

+$1.2

Record

72%

829-328 (1157)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100

Invested

$27.5

Value

$27.24

PnL

-$0.25

Record

58%

703-504 (1207)

godblessme2026<$100

Invested

$14.82

Value

$21.43

PnL

+$6.61

Record

34%

263-521 (784)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100

Invested

$19.88

Value

$19.14

PnL

-$0.75

Record

51%

787-755 (1542)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$14.79

Value

$16.45

PnL

+$1.66

Record

52%

1608-1475 (3083)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100

Invested

$15.71

Value

$14.85

PnL

-$0.86

Record

46%

1077-1282 (2359)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100

Invested

$9.67

Value

$9.67

PnL

+$0

Record

51%

746-711 (1457)

0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354<$100

Invested

$4.71

Value

$4.81

PnL

+$0.1

Record

63%

716-429 (1145)

241532532432CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$29.6

Value

$3.64

PnL

+$1.42

Record

40%

625-948 (1573)

0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.25

Value

$1.02

PnL

-$0.23

Record

58%

684-501 (1185)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 91%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 10 top traders (80%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 46%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

86% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 46% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 86% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance92.4%

91.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8.26

Max Loss

-$100.00

108.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.