Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (54%). 8 of 11 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 16°C on November 14?

8 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold No (73%) · No at 46¢ · $288 held · ends Nov 14

Yes54¢No46¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 73%

Total Value

$288.1

Combined PnL

$110.19

Research grade

NeutralNo at 46%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 11 top traders (73%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 54%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes54%

No46%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes3 traders

Total Value$192.11

Total Shares422

Combined PnL+$110.63

No8 traders

Total Value$95.99

Total Shares160

Combined PnL-$0.45

Yes — 27%No — 73%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

-2 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 47%

Freshness

Mature

28h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

3 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

73% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 47% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpYes 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrYes 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000No 73% · 11

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98	Yesavg 22.4¢	$53.79	$107.83	+$54.04	55% 1208-979 (2187)
HE hello.67	Yesavg 24.9¢	$118.15	$77.66	+$57.36	56% 2268-1802 (4070)
HaradwaithCTR<$100	Noavg 62¢	$61.99	$25.37	-$3.35	31% 146-327 (473)
24 241532532432CTR	Noavg 56¢	$100.33	$20.04	+$7.32	40% 620-939 (1559)
GO godblessme2026CTR<$100	Noavg 60¢	$18	$17.16	-$0.84	34% 263-518 (781)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Noavg 75.5¢	$18.56	$15.68	-$2.88	53% 1572-1421 (2993)
PO Poligarch<$100	Yesavg 45¢	$13.43	$6.61	-$0.77	72% 823-323 (1146)
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493CTR<$100	Noavg 57.2¢	$5.88	$5.88	+$0	58% 699-503 (1202)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293CTR<$100	Noavg 55.1¢	$6.14	$5.74	-$0.4	50% 697-689 (1386)
balthazarCTR<$100	Noavg 56¢	$3.3	$3.37	+$0.07	44% 5036-6461 (11497)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702CTR<$100	Noavg 61¢	$3.12	$2.76	-$0.36	51% 742-710 (1452)

0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98

Yes

Invested

$53.79

Value

$107.83

PnL

+$54.04

Record

55%

1208-979 (2187)

hello.67

Yes

Invested

$118.15

Value

$77.66

PnL

+$57.36

Record

56%

2268-1802 (4070)

HaradwaithCTR<$100

Invested

$61.99

Value

$25.37

PnL

-$3.35

Record

31%

146-327 (473)

241532532432CTR

Invested

$100.33

Value

$20.04

PnL

+$7.32

Record

40%

620-939 (1559)

godblessme2026CTR<$100

Invested

$18

Value

$17.16

PnL

-$0.84

Record

34%

263-518 (781)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Invested

$18.56

Value

$15.68

PnL

-$2.88

Record

53%

1572-1421 (2993)

Poligarch<$100

Yes

Invested

$13.43

Value

$6.61

PnL

-$0.77

Record

72%

823-323 (1146)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493CTR<$100

Invested

$5.88

Value

$5.88

PnL

+$0

Record

58%

699-503 (1202)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293CTR<$100

Invested

$6.14

Value

$5.74

PnL

-$0.4

Record

50%

697-689 (1386)

balthazarCTR<$100

Invested

$3.3

Value

$3.37

PnL

+$0.07

Record

44%

5036-6461 (11497)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702CTR<$100

Invested

$3.12

Value

$2.76

PnL

-$0.36

Record

51%

742-710 (1452)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 46%

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 11 top traders (73%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 54%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

-2 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 47%

Freshness

Mature

28h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

3 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

73% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 47% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpYes 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrYes 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000No 73% · 11

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance48.2%

46.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$107.27

Max Loss

-$100.00

207.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.