Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 15°C on November 14?

8 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (89%) · No at 66¢ · $148 held · ends Nov 14

Yes35¢No65¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 89%

Total Value

$147.59

Combined PnL

$18.3

Smart Money Entry

72.8¢ → 65.5¢

-10% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 66%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 9 top traders (89%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes35%

No66%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes1 trader

Total Value$60.29

Total Shares194

Combined PnL+$36.81

No8 traders

Total Value$87.29

Total Shares162

Combined PnL-$18.51

Yes — 11%No — 89%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

-1 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 50%

Freshness

Mature

17h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

89% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 50% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 50% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000No 89% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HE hello.67CTR<$100	Yesavg 12.1¢	$23.48	$60.29	+$36.81	56% 2269-1817 (4086)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 79.7¢	$43.46	$24.53	-$11.47	53% 1598-1443 (3041)
PO Poligarch<$100	Noavg 75.2¢	$27.32	$19.26	-$8.07	72% 829-328 (1157)
24 241532532432	Noavg 56.7¢	$149.7	$16.83	+$12.28	40% 625-948 (1573)
MI mildwindow27<$100	Noavg 90¢	$27	$15.9	-$11.1	30% 1026-2400 (3426)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100	Noavg 53¢	$2.73	$2.73	+$0	51% 787-755 (1542)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100	Noavg 53¢	$2.72	$2.72	+$0	46% 1077-1282 (2359)
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100	Noavg 54¢	$2.72	$2.67	-$0.05	58% 703-504 (1207)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100	Noavg 55¢	$2.76	$2.66	-$0.1	48% 762-815 (1577)

hello.67CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$23.48

Value

$60.29

PnL

+$36.81

Record

56%

2269-1817 (4086)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$43.46

Value

$24.53

PnL

-$11.47

Record

53%

1598-1443 (3041)

Poligarch<$100

Invested

$27.32

Value

$19.26

PnL

-$8.07

Record

72%

829-328 (1157)

241532532432

Invested

$149.7

Value

$16.83

PnL

+$12.28

Record

40%

625-948 (1573)

mildwindow27<$100

Invested

$27

Value

$15.9

PnL

-$11.1

Record

30%

1026-2400 (3426)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100

Invested

$2.73

Value

$2.73

PnL

+$0

Record

51%

787-755 (1542)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100

Invested

$2.72

Value

$2.72

PnL

+$0

Record

46%

1077-1282 (2359)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100

Invested

$2.72

Value

$2.67

PnL

-$0.05

Record

58%

703-504 (1207)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100

Invested

$2.76

Value

$2.66

PnL

-$0.1

Record

48%

762-815 (1577)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 66%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 9 top traders (89%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

-1 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 50%

Freshness

Mature

17h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

89% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 50% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 50% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000No 89% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance67.6%

65.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$47.90

Max Loss

-$100.00

147.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.