Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 14°C on November 14?

7 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold No (64%) · No at 100¢ · $117 held · ends Nov 14

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 64%

Total Value

$117.44

Combined PnL

-$16.6

Smart Money Entry

98.3¢ → 100¢

+2% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 11 top traders (64%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No7 traders

Total Value$117.12

Total Shares117

Combined PnL+$1.79

Yes4 traders

Total Value$0.31

Total Shares422

Combined PnL-$18.4

No — 64%Yes — 36%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

-6 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 60%

Freshness

Fresh

8h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

64% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 60% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrNo 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 64% · 11

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 96.8¢	$39.37	$40.64	+$1.27	53% 1598-1443 (3041)
NO northdrawer<$100	Noavg 98.9¢	$29.67	$29.94	+$0.27	29% 1096-2660 (3756)
GO god83743894<$100	Noavg 99.5¢	$22.69	$22.75	+$0.07	34% 231-458 (689)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100	Noavg 99.8¢	$11.12	$11.13	+$0.02	51% 787-755 (1542)
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100	Noavg 96.7¢	$4.95	$5.11	+$0.16	58% 703-504 (1207)
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100	Noavg 99.8¢	$5.03	$5.04	+$0.01	58% 684-501 (1185)
1D 1DVSBSTD<$100	Noavg 99.6¢	$2.5	$2.5	+$0.01	99% 1213-13 (1226)
24 241532532432CTR<$100	Yesavg 3.5¢	$12.51	$0.18	-$12.33	40% 625-948 (1573)
HE hello.67CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$5.44	$0.12	-$5.32	56% 2269-1817 (4086)
balthazarCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$0.54	$0.01	-$0.52	44% 5041-6482 (11523)
GR graynotebook19CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$0.23	$0.01	-$0.22	28% 1014-2623 (3637)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$39.37

Value

$40.64

PnL

+$1.27

Record

53%

1598-1443 (3041)

northdrawer<$100

Invested

$29.67

Value

$29.94

PnL

+$0.27

Record

29%

1096-2660 (3756)

god83743894<$100

Invested

$22.69

Value

$22.75

PnL

+$0.07

Record

34%

231-458 (689)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100

Invested

$11.12

Value

$11.13

PnL

+$0.02

Record

51%

787-755 (1542)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100

Invested

$4.95

Value

$5.11

PnL

+$0.16

Record

58%

703-504 (1207)

0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100

Invested

$5.03

Value

$5.04

PnL

+$0.01

Record

58%

684-501 (1185)

1DVSBSTD<$100

Invested

$2.5

Value

$2.5

PnL

+$0.01

Record

99%

1213-13 (1226)

241532532432CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$12.51

Value

$0.18

PnL

-$12.33

Record

40%

625-948 (1573)

hello.67CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.44

Value

$0.12

PnL

-$5.32

Record

56%

2269-1817 (4086)

balthazarCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.54

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$0.52

Record

44%

5041-6482 (11523)

graynotebook19CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.23

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$0.22

Record

28%

1014-2623 (3637)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 11 top traders (64%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

-6 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 60%

Freshness

Fresh

8h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

64% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 60% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrNo 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 64% · 11

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.