Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 17°C on November 13?

6 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (86%) · No at 99¢ · $183 held · ends Nov 13

Yes2¢No98¢Ends Fri, Nov 13, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 86%

Total Value

$183.36

Combined PnL

-$3.35

Smart Money Entry

94.9¢ → 98.5¢

+4% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 7 top traders (86%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes2%

No99%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No6 traders

Total Value$180.8

Total Shares183

Combined PnL+$6.69

Yes1 trader

Total Value$2.56

Total Shares139

Combined PnL-$10.04

No — 86%Yes — 14%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 89%

Freshness

Mature

16h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

86% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 89% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 86% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
24 241532532432	Noavg 96.4¢	$143.5	$132.45	+$2.76	37% 467-800 (1267)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 88.7¢	$25.31	$28.23	+$2.91	53% 1117-973 (2090)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100	Noavg 93.4¢	$9.62	$10.19	+$0.57	48% 583-621 (1204)
0X 0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354<$100	Noavg 92¢	$4.66	$5.01	+$0.35	61% 553-355 (908)
HE hello.67CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$12.6	$2.56	-$10.04	61% 2175-1410 (3585)
1D 1DVSBSTD<$100	Noavg 97.8¢	$2.5	$2.53	+$0.03	99% 823-8 (831)
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100	Noavg 96.3¢	$2.33	$2.39	+$0.06	60% 542-365 (907)

241532532432

Invested

$143.5

Value

$132.45

PnL

+$2.76

Record

37%

467-800 (1267)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$25.31

Value

$28.23

PnL

+$2.91

Record

53%

1117-973 (2090)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100

Invested

$9.62

Value

$10.19

PnL

+$0.57

Record

48%

583-621 (1204)

0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354<$100

Invested

$4.66

Value

$5.01

PnL

+$0.35

Record

61%

553-355 (908)

hello.67CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$12.6

Value

$2.56

PnL

-$10.04

Record

61%

2175-1410 (3585)

1DVSBSTD<$100

Invested

$2.5

Value

$2.53

PnL

+$0.03

Record

99%

823-8 (831)

0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100

Invested

$2.33

Value

$2.39

PnL

+$0.06

Record

60%

542-365 (907)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 7 top traders (86%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 89%

Freshness

Mature

16h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

86% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 89% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 86% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.5%

98.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.48

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.