Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 16°C on November 13?

6 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (75%) · No at 81¢ · $526 held · ends Nov 13

Yes20¢No80¢Ends Fri, Nov 13, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 75%

Total Value

$525.55

Combined PnL

-$15.95

Smart Money Entry

79.4¢ → 80.5¢

+1% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 81%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 8 top traders (75%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes20%

No81%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No6 traders

Total Value$323.66

Total Shares441

Combined PnL-$24.9

Yes2 traders

Total Value$201.88

Total Shares792

Combined PnL+$8.95

No — 75%Yes — 25%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+7 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Fresh

6h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000No 67% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98	Noavg 79.6¢	$331.88	$304.36	-$27.52	59% 1163-798 (1961)
HE hello.67CTR	Yesavg 23.1¢	$95.25	$105.03	+$9.78	63% 2143-1256 (3399)
24 241532532432CTR	Yesavg 26¢	$117.68	$96.85	-$0.83	35% 414-754 (1168)
PO Poligarch<$100	Noavg 73¢	$4	$4.08	+$0.08	76% 675-216 (891)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100	Noavg 77¢	$4	$4	-$0	42% 838-1166 (2004)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 74.8¢	$38.21	$3.82	+$2.59	53% 925-815 (1740)
Lucerys<$100	Noavg 78¢	$3.75	$3.7	-$0.05	37% 3468-5985 (9453)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100	Noavg 73¢	$3.7	$3.7	+$0	48% 492-535 (1027)

0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98

Invested

$331.88

Value

$304.36

PnL

-$27.52

Record

59%

1163-798 (1961)

hello.67CTR

Yes

Invested

$95.25

Value

$105.03

PnL

+$9.78

Record

63%

2143-1256 (3399)

241532532432CTR

Yes

Invested

$117.68

Value

$96.85

PnL

-$0.83

Record

35%

414-754 (1168)

Poligarch<$100

Invested

Value

$4.08

PnL

+$0.08

Record

76%

675-216 (891)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100

Invested

Value

PnL

-$0

Record

42%

838-1166 (2004)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$38.21

Value

$3.82

PnL

+$2.59

Record

53%

925-815 (1740)

Lucerys<$100

Invested

$3.75

Value

$3.7

PnL

-$0.05

Record

37%

3468-5985 (9453)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100

Invested

$3.7

Value

$3.7

PnL

+$0

Record

48%

492-535 (1027)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 81%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 8 top traders (75%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+7 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Fresh

6h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000No 67% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance82.3%

80.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$21.57

Max Loss

-$100.00

121.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.