Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 15°C on November 13?

7 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (88%) · No at 54¢ · $249 held · ends Nov 13

Yes47¢No53¢Ends Fri, Nov 13, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 88%

Total Value

$248.64

Combined PnL

$41.98

Smart Money Entry

59.5¢ → 53.5¢

-10% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 54%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 8 top traders (88%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes47%

No54%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No7 traders

Total Value$163.13

Total Shares291

Combined PnL+$25.41

Yes1 trader

Total Value$85.51

Total Shares190

Combined PnL+$16.56

No — 88%Yes — 12%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 84%

Freshness

Fresh

6h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

83% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 84% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000No 83% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
24 241532532432	Noavg 58.8¢	$101.53	$93.3	-$8.23	35% 414-754 (1168)
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR<$100	Yesavg 36.3¢	$68.95	$85.51	+$16.56	59% 1163-798 (1961)
HE hello.67	Noavg 61.8¢	$121.59	$32.01	+$36.45	63% 2143-1256 (3399)
Lucerys<$100	Noavg 54¢	$12.2	$12.2	+$0	37% 3468-5985 (9453)
PO Poligarch<$100	Noavg 56¢	$10.08	$10.19	+$0.11	76% 675-216 (891)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 70.4¢	$15.98	$9.81	-$2.92	53% 925-815 (1740)
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100	Noavg 55¢	$2.81	$2.81	+$0	62% 471-291 (762)
0X 0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354<$100	Noavg 54¢	$2.8	$2.8	+$0	62% 473-292 (765)

241532532432

Invested

$101.53

Value

$93.3

PnL

-$8.23

Record

35%

414-754 (1168)

0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$68.95

Value

$85.51

PnL

+$16.56

Record

59%

1163-798 (1961)

hello.67

Invested

$121.59

Value

$32.01

PnL

+$36.45

Record

63%

2143-1256 (3399)

Lucerys<$100

Invested

$12.2

Value

$12.2

PnL

+$0

Record

37%

3468-5985 (9453)

Poligarch<$100

Invested

$10.08

Value

$10.19

PnL

+$0.11

Record

76%

675-216 (891)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$15.98

Value

$9.81

PnL

-$2.92

Record

53%

925-815 (1740)

0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100

Invested

$2.81

Value

$2.81

PnL

+$0

Record

62%

471-291 (762)

0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354<$100

Invested

$2.8

Value

$2.8

PnL

+$0

Record

62%

473-292 (765)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 54%

Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

7 of 8 top traders (88%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 84%

Freshness

Fresh

6h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

83% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 84% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000No 83% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance55.7%

53.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$79.40

Max Loss

-$100.00

179.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.