Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (74%). 2 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 14°C on November 13?

2 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (25%) · Yes at 27¢ · $273 held · ends Nov 13

Yes27¢No73¢Ends Fri, Nov 13, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 25%

Total Value

$272.94

Combined PnL

-$51.7

Smart Money Entry

28.3¢ → 26.5¢

-6% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 27%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

2 of 8 top traders (25%)Underdog side (market favors No 74%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes27%

No74%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes2 traders

Total Value$169.43

Total Shares892

Combined PnL-$70.43

No6 traders

Total Value$103.08

Total Shares128

Combined PnL+$18.73

Yes — 25%No — 75%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

3h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

33% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrYes 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 67% · 6

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR	Yesavg 35.9¢	$176.83	$93.65	-$83.18	59% 1163-798 (1961)
HE hello.67CTR	Yesavg 19¢	$189.05	$75.78	+$12.76	63% 2143-1256 (3399)
24 241532532432	Noavg 71.5¢	$154.14	$64.78	+$19.08	35% 414-754 (1168)
Lucerys<$100	Noavg 77¢	$17.4	$17.18	-$0.23	37% 3468-5985 (9453)
PO Poligarch<$100	Noavg 82.5¢	$12.16	$12.09	-$0.07	76% 675-216 (891)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100	Noavg 82¢	$4.16	$4.16	+$0	48% 510-557 (1067)
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100	Noavg 77¢	$4	$3.94	-$0.05	58% 481-347 (828)
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100	Noavg 82¢	$0.93	$0.93	-$0	62% 471-291 (762)

0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR

Yes

Invested

$176.83

Value

$93.65

PnL

-$83.18

Record

59%

1163-798 (1961)

hello.67CTR

Yes

Invested

$189.05

Value

$75.78

PnL

+$12.76

Record

63%

2143-1256 (3399)

241532532432

Invested

$154.14

Value

$64.78

PnL

+$19.08

Record

35%

414-754 (1168)

Lucerys<$100

Invested

$17.4

Value

$17.18

PnL

-$0.23

Record

37%

3468-5985 (9453)

Poligarch<$100

Invested

$12.16

Value

$12.09

PnL

-$0.07

Record

76%

675-216 (891)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100

Invested

$4.16

Value

$4.16

PnL

+$0

Record

48%

510-557 (1067)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100

Invested

Value

$3.94

PnL

-$0.05

Record

58%

481-347 (828)

0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100

Invested

$0.93

Value

$0.93

PnL

-$0

Record

62%

471-291 (762)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 27%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

2 of 8 top traders (25%)Underdog side (market favors No 74%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

3h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

33% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrYes 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 67% · 6

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance28.5%

26.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$250.92

Max Loss

-$100.00

350.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.