Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 12°C on November 13?

6 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (75%) · No at 93¢ · $58 held · ends Nov 13

Yes7¢No93¢Ends Fri, Nov 13, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 75%

Total Value

$58.22

Combined PnL

-$4.76

Research grade

NeutralNo at 93%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 8 top traders (75%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes7%

No93%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No6 traders

Total Value$41.96

Total Shares45

Combined PnL-$0.83

Yes2 traders

Total Value$16.26

Total Shares235

Combined PnL-$3.93

No — 75%Yes — 25%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+4 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 66%

Freshness

Fresh

6h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

75% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 66% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 50% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000No 75% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x9506e646497107cabf2d5b941a8e6a60d0db1c4f<$100	Noavg 92.5¢	$22.44	$22.55	+$0.11	75% 64-21 (85)
HE hello.67CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$15.88	$12.51	-$3.37	61% 2175-1410 (3585)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 98.4¢	$5.4	$5.16	-$0.25	53% 1117-973 (2090)
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100	Noavg 98.7¢	$5.04	$4.8	-$0.25	58% 557-402 (959)
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100	Noavg 98.7¢	$5	$4.76	-$0.24	60% 542-365 (907)
24 241532532432CTR<$100	Yesavg 7¢	$4.31	$3.75	-$0.55	37% 467-800 (1267)
1D 1DVSBSTD<$100	Noavg 96.9¢	$2.5	$2.42	-$0.08	99% 823-8 (831)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100	Noavg 99.5¢	$2.41	$2.27	-$0.14	48% 622-673 (1295)

0x9506e646497107cabf2d5b941a8e6a60d0db1c4f<$100

Invested

$22.44

Value

$22.55

PnL

+$0.11

Record

75%

64-21 (85)

hello.67CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$15.88

Value

$12.51

PnL

-$3.37

Record

61%

2175-1410 (3585)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$5.4

Value

$5.16

PnL

-$0.25

Record

53%

1117-973 (2090)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100

Invested

$5.04

Value

$4.8

PnL

-$0.25

Record

58%

557-402 (959)

0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100

Invested

Value

$4.76

PnL

-$0.24

Record

60%

542-365 (907)

241532532432CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.31

Value

$3.75

PnL

-$0.55

Record

37%

467-800 (1267)

1DVSBSTD<$100

Invested

$2.5

Value

$2.42

PnL

-$0.08

Record

99%

823-8 (831)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100

Invested

$2.41

Value

$2.27

PnL

-$0.14

Record

48%

622-673 (1295)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 93%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 8 top traders (75%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+4 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 66%

Freshness

Fresh

6h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

75% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 66% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 50% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000No 75% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance94.3%

93.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$6.06

Max Loss

-$100.00

106.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.