Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 6 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 8°C or below on November 12?

6 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (86%) · Yes at 0.1¢ · $85 held · ends Nov 12

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 86%

Total Value

$85.26

Combined PnL

-$53.79

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

6 of 7 top traders (86%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No1 trader

Total Value$84.96

Total Shares85

Combined PnL+$0.04

Yes6 traders

Total Value$0.3

Total Shares595

Combined PnL-$53.83

No — 14%Yes — 86%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 64%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

86% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 64% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpYes 67% · 3

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 86% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
1D 1DVSBSTD<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$84.92	$84.96	+$0.04	99% 398-3 (401)
HE hello.67CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$25.1	$0.14	-$24.96	68% 2115-1000 (3115)
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$9.42	$0.05	-$9.36	61% 1153-751 (1904)
balthazarCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$9.09	$0.05	-$9.04	51% 4781-4575 (9356)
LucerysCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$4.15	$0.02	-$4.13	39% 3421-5409 (8830)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$3.64	$0.02	-$3.62	47% 484-554 (1038)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$2.73	$0.02	-$2.71	13% 29-188 (217)

1DVSBSTD<$100

Invested

$84.92

Value

$84.96

PnL

+$0.04

Record

99%

398-3 (401)

hello.67CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$25.1

Value

$0.14

PnL

-$24.96

Record

68%

2115-1000 (3115)

0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$9.42

Value

$0.05

PnL

-$9.36

Record

61%

1153-751 (1904)

balthazarCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$9.09

Value

$0.05

PnL

-$9.04

Record

51%

4781-4575 (9356)

LucerysCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.15

Value

$0.02

PnL

-$4.13

Record

39%

3421-5409 (8830)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.64

Value

$0.02

PnL

-$3.62

Record

47%

484-554 (1038)

LornaPredictsCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.73

Value

$0.02

PnL

-$2.71

Record

13%

29-188 (217)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

6 of 7 top traders (86%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 64%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

86% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 64% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpYes 67% · 3

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 86% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.1%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8974.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

9074.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.