Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 18°C or higher on November 12?
1 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (14%) · No at 100¢ · $585 held · ends Nov 12
⚖️
Neutral
No
7
No 14%
$585.34
-$49.83
Research grade
NeutralNo at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 7 top traders (14%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
1 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
14% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1D 1DVSBSTD | Noavg 99.9¢ | $584.42 | $576.04 | -$8.38 | 99% 398-3 (401) |
HE hello.67CTR<$100 | Yesavg 9.1¢ | $25.1 | $4.28 | -$20.82 | 68% 2115-1000 (3115) |
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR<$100 | Yesavg 9.1¢ | $9.42 | $1.61 | -$7.81 | 61% 1153-751 (1904) |
 balthazarCTR<$100 | Yesavg 9.1¢ | $9.09 | $1.55 | -$7.54 | 51% 4781-4575 (9356) |
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579CTR<$100 | Yesavg 5.6¢ | $4.18 | $1.17 | -$3.02 | 47% 484-554 (1038) |
 LornaPredictsCTR<$100 | Yesavg 9.1¢ | $2.73 | $0.47 | -$2.26 | 13% 29-188 (217) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Yesavg 1.5¢ | $0.23 | $0.24 | +$0 | 55% 729-596 (1325) |
Invested
$584.42
Value
$576.04
PnL
-$8.38
Record
99%
398-3 (401)
Invested
$25.1
Value
$4.28
PnL
-$20.82
Record
68%
2115-1000 (3115)
Invested
$9.42
Value
$1.61
PnL
-$7.81
Record
61%
1153-751 (1904)
balthazarCTR<$100Invested
$9.09
Value
$1.55
PnL
-$7.54
Record
51%
4781-4575 (9356)
Invested
$4.18
Value
$1.17
PnL
-$3.02
Record
47%
484-554 (1038)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100Invested
$2.73
Value
$0.47
PnL
-$2.26
Record
13%
29-188 (217)
Invested
$0.23
Value
$0.24
PnL
+$0
Record
55%
729-596 (1325)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.