Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 17°C on November 12?

4 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 99¢ · $187 held · ends Nov 12

Yes1¢No99¢Ends Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 50%

Total Value

$186.69

Combined PnL

-$0.45

Smart Money Entry

99.6¢ → 98.9¢

-1% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 8 top traders (50%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes1%

No99%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No4 traders

Total Value$186.05

Total Shares187

Combined PnL-$0.54

Yes4 traders

Total Value$0.63

Total Shares55

Combined PnL+$0.09

No — 50%Yes — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 67%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

50% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 67% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 67% · 6

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 50% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
1D 1DVSBSTD<$100	Noavg 99.6¢	$79.71	$79.84	+$0.13	99% 288-2 (290)
Lucerys<$100	Noavg 99.4¢	$45.01	$44.76	-$0.25	37% 3224-5382 (8606)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100	Noavg 99.7¢	$42.47	$42.13	-$0.34	47% 368-407 (775)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100	Noavg 99.7¢	$19.4	$19.32	-$0.07	41% 700-997 (1697)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.2¢	$0.04	$0.24	+$0.2	12% 22-156 (178)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579CTR<$100	Yesavg 1.4¢	$0.29	$0.24	-$0.05	43% 386-510 (896)
balthazarCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.5¢	$0.15	$0.11	-$0.04	51% 4670-4532 (9202)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343CTR<$100	Yesavg 1.8¢	$0.06	$0.04	-$0.02	44% 401-519 (920)

1DVSBSTD<$100

Invested

$79.71

Value

$79.84

PnL

+$0.13

Record

99%

288-2 (290)

Lucerys<$100

Invested

$45.01

Value

$44.76

PnL

-$0.25

Record

37%

3224-5382 (8606)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100

Invested

$42.47

Value

$42.13

PnL

-$0.34

Record

47%

368-407 (775)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100

Invested

$19.4

Value

$19.32

PnL

-$0.07

Record

41%

700-997 (1697)

LornaPredictsCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.04

Value

$0.24

PnL

+$0.2

Record

12%

22-156 (178)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.29

Value

$0.24

PnL

-$0.05

Record

43%

386-510 (896)

balthazarCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.15

Value

$0.11

PnL

-$0.04

Record

51%

4670-4532 (9202)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.06

Value

$0.04

PnL

-$0.02

Record

44%

401-519 (920)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 8 top traders (50%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 67%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

50% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 67% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 67% · 6

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 50% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

98.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.14

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.