Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 16°C on November 12?

8 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 97¢ · $473 held · ends Nov 12

Yes3¢No97¢Ends Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 80%

Total Value

$472.96

Combined PnL

$17.91

Smart Money Entry

93.5¢ → 96.9¢

+4% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 97%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 10 top traders (80%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes3%

No97%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No8 traders

Total Value$472.45

Total Shares482

Combined PnL+$18.41

Yes2 traders

Total Value$0.51

Total Shares14

Combined PnL-$0.51

No — 80%Yes — 20%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+40 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 83%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

80% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 83% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 6

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 80% · 10

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
24 241532532432	Noavg 92.3¢	$332.78	$351.52	+$18.74	32% 299-629 (928)
Lucerys<$100	Noavg 96.1¢	$43.53	$43.88	+$0.35	37% 3224-5382 (8606)
balthazar<$100	Noavg 98.7¢	$42.56	$41.62	-$0.94	51% 4670-4532 (9202)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100	Noavg 97.8¢	$12.98	$13.03	+$0.05	45% 391-471 (862)
PO Poligarch<$100	Noavg 94.3¢	$9.52	$9.79	+$0.26	80% 570-145 (715)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100	Noavg 96.7¢	$5.47	$5.45	-$0.02	43% 386-510 (896)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100	Noavg 97.1¢	$5.02	$5.01	-$0.01	44% 401-519 (920)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100	Noavg 98¢	$2.18	$2.15	-$0.02	47% 368-407 (775)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Yesavg 5.5¢	$10.64	$0.26	-$0.19	55% 581-483 (1064)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100	Yesavg 11¢	$0.57	$0.25	-$0.32	12% 22-156 (178)

241532532432

Invested

$332.78

Value

$351.52

PnL

+$18.74

Record

32%

299-629 (928)

Lucerys<$100

Invested

$43.53

Value

$43.88

PnL

+$0.35

Record

37%

3224-5382 (8606)

balthazar<$100

Invested

$42.56

Value

$41.62

PnL

-$0.94

Record

51%

4670-4532 (9202)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100

Invested

$12.98

Value

$13.03

PnL

+$0.05

Record

45%

391-471 (862)

Poligarch<$100

Invested

$9.52

Value

$9.79

PnL

+$0.26

Record

80%

570-145 (715)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100

Invested

$5.47

Value

$5.45

PnL

-$0.02

Record

43%

386-510 (896)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100

Invested

$5.02

Value

$5.01

PnL

-$0.01

Record

44%

401-519 (920)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100

Invested

$2.18

Value

$2.15

PnL

-$0.02

Record

47%

368-407 (775)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$10.64

Value

$0.26

PnL

-$0.19

Record

55%

581-483 (1064)

LornaPredictsCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.57

Value

$0.25

PnL

-$0.32

Record

12%

22-156 (178)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 97%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 10 top traders (80%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+40 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 83%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

80% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 83% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 6

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 80% · 10

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance98.0%

96.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$2.04

Max Loss

-$100.00

102.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.