Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 15°C on November 12?
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 93¢ · $537 held · ends Nov 12
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 80%
$537.4
-$18.44
83¢ → 92.5¢
+11% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 93%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 95%
Freshness
Fresh
4h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 95% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
24 241532532432 | Noavg 83.2¢ | $481.86 | $477.59 | -$4.27 | 29% 237-575 (812) |
 LornaPredicts<$100 | Noavg 74¢ | $18.2 | $19.42 | +$1.22 | 12% 17-121 (138) |
 Lucerys<$100 | Noavg 87.6¢ | $17.52 | $17.52 | +$0 | 37% 3085-5357 (8442) |
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR<$100 | Yesavg 20.9¢ | $28.64 | $13.04 | -$15.6 | 61% 1144-746 (1890) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 84¢ | $9.62 | $9.83 | +$0.21 | 54% 383-321 (704) |
Invested
$481.86
Value
$477.59
PnL
-$4.27
Record
29%
237-575 (812)
LornaPredicts<$100Invested
$18.2
Value
$19.42
PnL
+$1.22
Record
12%
17-121 (138)
Lucerys<$100Invested
$17.52
Value
$17.52
PnL
+$0
Record
37%
3085-5357 (8442)
Invested
$28.64
Value
$13.04
PnL
-$15.6
Record
61%
1144-746 (1890)
Invested
$9.62
Value
$9.83
PnL
+$0.21
Record
54%
383-321 (704)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
92.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.