Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 14°C on November 12?
5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (83%) · No at 77¢ · $587 held · ends Nov 12
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 83%
$587.04
-$2.42
77.2¢ → 77¢
+0% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 77%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 6 top traders (83%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 89%
Freshness
Fresh
7h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
83% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 89% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
24 241532532432 | Noavg 73.8¢ | $225.03 | $253.15 | +$28.12 | 30% 246-584 (830) |
HE hello.67 | Noavg 80.3¢ | $221.63 | $229.17 | +$7.53 | 69% 2062-948 (3010) |
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR<$100 | Yesavg 30.9¢ | $87.74 | $48.29 | -$39.45 | 61% 1144-746 (1890) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 75.9¢ | $27.27 | $20.74 | +$0.94 | 54% 401-336 (737) |
 LornaPredicts<$100 | Noavg 83¢ | $19.09 | $19.09 | +$0 | 12% 18-127 (145) |
 Lucerys<$100 | Noavg 80.8¢ | $16.16 | $16.6 | +$0.44 | 37% 3112-5362 (8474) |
Invested
$225.03
Value
$253.15
PnL
+$28.12
Record
30%
246-584 (830)
Invested
$221.63
Value
$229.17
PnL
+$7.53
Record
69%
2062-948 (3010)
Invested
$87.74
Value
$48.29
PnL
-$39.45
Record
61%
1144-746 (1890)
Invested
$27.27
Value
$20.74
PnL
+$0.94
Record
54%
401-336 (737)
LornaPredicts<$100Invested
$19.09
Value
$19.09
PnL
+$0
Record
12%
18-127 (145)
Lucerys<$100Invested
$16.16
Value
$16.6
PnL
+$0.44
Record
37%
3112-5362 (8474)
Chat
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
77.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.