Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 13°C on November 12?
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (60%) · No at 66¢ · $740 held · ends Nov 12
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 60%
1 arb excluded
$740.27
-$22.46
66.5¢ → 65.5¢
-1% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 66%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 97%
Freshness
Fresh
7h old
Flip Quality
Watch
1 consensus flip
60% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HE hello.67 | Noavg 66.5¢ | $309.8 | $303.56 | -$6.24 | 69% 2062-948 (3010) |
24 241532532432ARB<$100 | Noavg 65.2¢ | $250.2 | $270.37 | +$20.17 | 30% 246-584 (830) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 65.2¢ | $193.68 | $194.58 | +$0.9 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 25.7¢ | $56.52 | $75.79 | +$19.27 | |
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR | Yesavg 34.8¢ | $158.41 | $141.14 | -$17.27 | 61% 1144-746 (1890) |
 Lucerys<$100 | Noavg 66¢ | $8.94 | $8.94 | +$0 | 37% 3112-5362 (8474) |
 LornaPredictsCTR<$100 | Yesavg 33¢ | $8.55 | $8.18 | -$0.37 | 12% 18-127 (145) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 65.3¢ | $19.54 | $8.08 | +$1.42 | 54% 401-336 (737) |
Invested
$309.8
Value
$303.56
PnL
-$6.24
Record
69%
2062-948 (3010)
Invested
$250.2
Value
$270.37
PnL
+$20.17
Record
30%
246-584 (830)
Both legs:
Invested
$158.41
Value
$141.14
PnL
-$17.27
Record
61%
1144-746 (1890)
Lucerys<$100Invested
$8.94
Value
$8.94
PnL
+$0
Record
37%
3112-5362 (8474)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100Invested
$8.55
Value
$8.18
PnL
-$0.37
Record
12%
18-127 (145)
Invested
$19.54
Value
$8.08
PnL
+$1.42
Record
54%
401-336 (737)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
65.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.