Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 12°C on November 12?
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 83¢ · $496 held · ends Nov 12
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 80%
$495.97
$18.1
78.3¢ → 83¢
+6% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 83%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Building
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 94%
Freshness
Fresh
7h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 94% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98 | Noavg 78.1¢ | $321.05 | $322.96 | +$1.9 | 61% 1144-746 (1890) |
24 241532532432CTR<$100 | Yesavg 17¢ | $64.76 | $76.17 | +$11.4 | 30% 246-584 (830) |
HE hello.67<$100 | Noavg 79.6¢ | $73.09 | $72.11 | +$3.02 | 69% 2062-948 (3010) |
 Lucerys<$100 | Noavg 75.9¢ | $15.18 | $15.7 | +$0.52 | 37% 3112-5362 (8474) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 83.9¢ | $19.44 | $9.04 | +$1.25 | 54% 401-336 (737) |
Invested
$321.05
Value
$322.96
PnL
+$1.9
Record
61%
1144-746 (1890)
Invested
$64.76
Value
$76.17
PnL
+$11.4
Record
30%
246-584 (830)
Invested
$73.09
Value
$72.11
PnL
+$3.02
Record
69%
2062-948 (3010)
Lucerys<$100Invested
$15.18
Value
$15.7
PnL
+$0.52
Record
37%
3112-5362 (8474)
Invested
$19.44
Value
$9.04
PnL
+$1.25
Record
54%
401-336 (737)
Chat
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
83.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.