Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (94%). 4 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 11°C on November 12?

4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (80%) · Yes at 6.2¢ · $60 held · ends Nov 12

Yes6¢No94¢Ends Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 80%

Total Value

$59.99

Combined PnL

-$22.09

Research grade

AvoidYes at 6%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 5 top traders (80%)Underdog side (market favors No 94%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes6%

No94%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes4 traders

Total Value$41.97

Total Shares652

Combined PnL-$21.59

No1 trader

Total Value$18.02

Total Shares20

Combined PnL-$0.5

Yes — 80%No — 20%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 85%

Freshness

Fresh

7h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

80% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 85% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrYes 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 80% · 5

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
24 241532532432CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.4¢	$37.8	$24.82	-$12.98	30% 246-584 (830)
Lucerys<$100	Noavg 92.6¢	$18.52	$18.02	-$0.5	37% 3112-5362 (8474)
HE hello.67CTR<$100	Yesavg 10.7¢	$18.52	$10.72	-$7.81	69% 2062-948 (3010)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Yesavg 7.2¢	$48.27	$4.21	-$0.86	54% 401-336 (737)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100	Yesavg 6¢	$2.16	$2.21	+$0.06	12% 18-127 (145)

241532532432CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$37.8

Value

$24.82

PnL

-$12.98

Record

30%

246-584 (830)

Lucerys<$100

Invested

$18.52

Value

$18.02

PnL

-$0.5

Record

37%

3112-5362 (8474)

hello.67CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$18.52

Value

$10.72

PnL

-$7.81

Record

69%

2062-948 (3010)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$48.27

Value

$4.21

PnL

-$0.86

Record

54%

401-336 (737)

LornaPredictsCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.16

Value

$2.21

PnL

+$0.06

Record

12%

18-127 (145)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 6%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 5 top traders (80%)Underdog side (market favors No 94%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 85%

Freshness

Fresh

7h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

80% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 85% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrYes 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 80% · 5

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance7.5%

6.2¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$1236.55

Max Loss

-$100.00

1336.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.