Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 18°C on November 11?
5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 97¢ · $214 held · ends Nov 11
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 100%
$214.19
$9.14
92.9¢ → 97.5¢
+5% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 97%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 5 top traders (100%)4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 86%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 86% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
24 241532532432 | Noavg 92.5¢ | $148.9 | $155.89 | +$6.99 | 28% 213-547 (760) |
 Lucerys<$100 | Noavg 95.9¢ | $28.76 | $29.28 | +$0.52 | 36% 3035-5349 (8384) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 89.1¢ | $15.29 | $16.76 | +$1.46 | 53% 335-299 (634) |
QW qwen300.fund<$100 | Noavg 96¢ | $9.6 | $9.76 | +$0.16 | 29% 2560-6176 (8736) |
1D 1DVSBSTD<$100 | Noavg 97.6¢ | $2.5 | $2.5 | +$0 | 99% 146-1 (147) |
Invested
$148.9
Value
$155.89
PnL
+$6.99
Record
28%
213-547 (760)
Lucerys<$100Invested
$28.76
Value
$29.28
PnL
+$0.52
Record
36%
3035-5349 (8384)
Invested
$15.29
Value
$16.76
PnL
+$1.46
Record
53%
335-299 (634)
Invested
$9.6
Value
$9.76
PnL
+$0.16
Record
29%
2560-6176 (8736)
Invested
$2.5
Value
$2.5
PnL
+$0
Record
99%
146-1 (147)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
97.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.