Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 17°C on November 11?

4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 72¢ · $431 held · ends Nov 11

Yes28¢No72¢Ends Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 67%

Total Value

$430.53

Combined PnL

$8.54

Smart Money Entry

82¢ → 72¢

-12% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 72%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 6 top traders (67%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes28%

No72%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No4 traders

Total Value$367.34

Total Shares432

Combined PnL+$2.98

Yes2 traders

Total Value$63.19

Total Shares245

Combined PnL+$5.56

No — 67%Yes — 33%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
24 241532532432	Noavg 82.5¢	$339.29	$339.6	+$0.31	24% 158-513 (671)
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR<$100	Yesavg 24.4¢	$48.25	$55.26	+$7.01	59% 1019-705 (1724)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 73¢	$11.54	$13.2	+$1.66	51% 256-247 (503)
Lucerys<$100	Noavg 76¢	$7.6	$8.35	+$0.75	35% 2903-5326 (8229)
HE hello.67CTR<$100	Yesavg 19.5¢	$9.38	$7.93	-$1.45	69% 2060-943 (3003)
PO Poligarch<$100	Noavg 80¢	$5.93	$6.19	+$0.26	86% 438-72 (510)

241532532432

Invested

$339.29

Value

$339.6

PnL

+$0.31

Record

24%

158-513 (671)

0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$48.25

Value

$55.26

PnL

+$7.01

Record

59%

1019-705 (1724)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$11.54

Value

$13.2

PnL

+$1.66

Record

51%

256-247 (503)

Lucerys<$100

Invested

$7.6

Value

$8.35

PnL

+$0.75

Record

35%

2903-5326 (8229)

hello.67CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$9.38

Value

$7.93

PnL

-$1.45

Record

69%

2060-943 (3003)

Poligarch<$100

Invested

$5.93

Value

$6.19

PnL

+$0.26

Record

86%

438-72 (510)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 72%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 6 top traders (67%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance74.0%

72.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$35.16

Max Loss

-$100.00

135.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.