Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 16°C on November 11?
6 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 71¢ · $182 held · ends Nov 11
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 100%
1 arb excluded
$182.42
$4.95
Research grade
NeutralNo at 71%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 6 top traders (100%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Building
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 61%
Freshness
Fresh
1h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 61% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
24 241532532432ARB<$100 | Yesavg 34.5¢ | $108.2 | $108.86 | +$0.66 | 30% 246-584 (830) |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 34.5¢ | $77.24 | $74.94 | -$2.3 | |
| └ No leg | Noavg 60.7¢ | $30.96 | $33.92 | +$2.95 | |
PO Poligarch<$100 | Noavg 66.1¢ | $20.16 | $21.97 | +$1.81 | 82% 516-115 (631) |
 Lucerys<$100 | Noavg 61¢ | $18.3 | $21.9 | +$3.6 | 37% 3112-5362 (8474) |
 balthazar<$100 | Noavg 71¢ | $14.2 | $13.4 | -$0.8 | 50% 4583-4495 (9078) |
QW qwen300.fund<$100 | Noavg 67.5¢ | $8.93 | $9.65 | +$0.73 | 30% 2638-6194 (8832) |
LU luciebot<$100 | Noavg 76¢ | $3.8 | $3.68 | -$0.13 | 78% 298-83 (381) |
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100 | Noavg 73¢ | $3.23 | $2.97 | -$0.27 | 40% 329-494 (823) |
Invested
$108.2
Value
$108.86
PnL
+$0.66
Record
30%
246-584 (830)
Both legs:
Invested
$20.16
Value
$21.97
PnL
+$1.81
Record
82%
516-115 (631)
Lucerys<$100Invested
$18.3
Value
$21.9
PnL
+$3.6
Record
37%
3112-5362 (8474)
balthazar<$100Invested
$14.2
Value
$13.4
PnL
-$0.8
Record
50%
4583-4495 (9078)
Invested
$8.93
Value
$9.65
PnL
+$0.73
Record
30%
2638-6194 (8832)
Invested
$3.8
Value
$3.68
PnL
-$0.13
Record
78%
298-83 (381)
Invested
$3.23
Value
$2.97
PnL
-$0.27
Record
40%
329-494 (823)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
71.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.