Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 14°C on November 11?
8 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 91¢ · $129 held · ends Nov 11
⚖️
Neutral
No
8
No 100%
$129.33
-$1.2
88¢ → 91.3¢
+4% since entry · 8 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 91%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
8 of 8 top traders (100%)8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Building
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
8 traders
Top 2 hold 45%
Freshness
Fresh
8h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 45% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
24 241532532432<$100 | Noavg 85.4¢ | $35.57 | $37.71 | +$2.14 | 30% 246-584 (830) |
 Lucerys<$100 | Noavg 95.5¢ | $23.89 | $22.23 | -$1.66 | 37% 3112-5362 (8474) |
PO Poligarch<$100 | Noavg 87.6¢ | $18.98 | $17.72 | -$1.26 | 82% 516-115 (631) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 87.3¢ | $42.27 | $15.05 | -$2.37 | 54% 401-336 (737) |
HE hello.67<$100 | Noavg 85.8¢ | $12.2 | $12.99 | +$0.79 | 69% 2062-948 (3010) |
QW qwen300.fund<$100 | Noavg 82.5¢ | $10.92 | $11.76 | +$0.84 | 30% 2638-6194 (8832) |
AN anothercoin<$100 | Noavg 88.9¢ | $7.11 | $7.3 | +$0.19 | 39% 1250-1994 (3244) |
LU luciebot<$100 | Noavg 88.9¢ | $4.45 | $4.57 | +$0.12 | 78% 298-83 (381) |
Invested
$35.57
Value
$37.71
PnL
+$2.14
Record
30%
246-584 (830)
Lucerys<$100Invested
$23.89
Value
$22.23
PnL
-$1.66
Record
37%
3112-5362 (8474)
Invested
$18.98
Value
$17.72
PnL
-$1.26
Record
82%
516-115 (631)
Invested
$42.27
Value
$15.05
PnL
-$2.37
Record
54%
401-336 (737)
Invested
$12.2
Value
$12.99
PnL
+$0.79
Record
69%
2062-948 (3010)
Invested
$10.92
Value
$11.76
PnL
+$0.84
Record
30%
2638-6194 (8832)
Invested
$7.11
Value
$7.3
PnL
+$0.19
Record
39%
1250-1994 (3244)
Invested
$4.45
Value
$4.57
PnL
+$0.12
Record
78%
298-83 (381)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
91.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.