Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 13°C on November 11?
7 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (88%) · No at 99¢ · $95 held · ends Nov 11
⚖️
Neutral
No
8
No 88%
$94.97
$0.09
Research grade
NeutralNo at 99%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
7 of 8 top traders (88%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Building
+3 pts consensus
Breadth
6 traders
Top 2 hold 56%
Freshness
Fresh
1h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
86% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 56% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Lucerys<$100 | Noavg 99.5¢ | $29.85 | $29.79 | -$0.06 | 37% 3112-5362 (8474) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 97.6¢ | $20.28 | $20.4 | +$0.33 | 55% 399-332 (731) |
 balthazar<$100 | Noavg 99.4¢ | $19.88 | $19.78 | -$0.1 | 50% 4583-4495 (9078) |
QW qwen300.fund<$100 | Noavg 99.6¢ | $13.18 | $13.14 | -$0.04 | 30% 2638-6194 (8832) |
LU luciebot<$100 | Noavg 99.7¢ | $4.99 | $4.95 | -$0.04 | 78% 298-83 (381) |
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100 | Noavg 99.3¢ | $4.4 | $4.36 | -$0.04 | 41% 324-472 (796) |
1D 1DVSBSTD<$100 | Noavg 99.7¢ | $2.5 | $2.49 | -$0.01 | 99% 212-1 (213) |
24 241532532432CTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.4¢ | $0.01 | $0.06 | +$0.05 | 30% 246-584 (830) |
Lucerys<$100Invested
$29.85
Value
$29.79
PnL
-$0.06
Record
37%
3112-5362 (8474)
Invested
$20.28
Value
$20.4
PnL
+$0.33
Record
55%
399-332 (731)
balthazar<$100Invested
$19.88
Value
$19.78
PnL
-$0.1
Record
50%
4583-4495 (9078)
Invested
$13.18
Value
$13.14
PnL
-$0.04
Record
30%
2638-6194 (8832)
Invested
$4.99
Value
$4.95
PnL
-$0.04
Record
78%
298-83 (381)
Invested
$4.4
Value
$4.36
PnL
-$0.04
Record
41%
324-472 (796)
Invested
$2.5
Value
$2.49
PnL
-$0.01
Record
99%
212-1 (213)
Invested
$0.01
Value
$0.06
PnL
+$0.05
Record
30%
246-584 (830)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
98.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.