Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 16°C on November 10?

10 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 93¢ · $327 held · ends Nov 10

Yes7¢No93¢Ends Tue, Nov 10, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 100%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$327.03

Combined PnL

$20.62

Smart Money Entry

83.3¢ → 93¢

+12% since entry · 10 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 93%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

10 of 10 top traders (100%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes7%

No93%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No10 traders

Total Value$180.6

Total Shares193

Combined PnL+$20.62

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

10 traders

Top 2 hold 41%

Freshness

Fresh

7h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 41% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrNo 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 100% · 10

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
24 241532532432ARB<$100	Noavg 86.2¢	$116.46	$146.43	+$29.97	21% 132-485 (617)
└ No leg	Noavg 86.2¢	$73.25	$80.25	+$7
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 15¢	$43.21	$66.19	+$22.97
PO Poligarch<$100	Noavg 84¢	$33.34	$38.05	+$4.72	89% 409-53 (462)
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 83¢	$33.2	$37.76	+$4.56	52% 5134-4698 (9832)
Lucerys<$100	Noavg 78.7¢	$23.97	$28.77	+$4.8	37% 2788-4826 (7614)
QW qwen300.fund<$100	Noavg 85.8¢	$23.84	$26.23	+$2.38	30% 2360-5638 (7998)
HE HellYeahTrader<$100	Noavg 81¢	$16.21	$18.9	+$2.68	2% 12-662 (674)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100	Noavg 94¢	$12.33	$10.1	-$2.23	34% 150-294 (444)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 81.9¢	$25.9	$6.85	+$2.3	51% 197-186 (383)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100	Noavg 70¢	$4.75	$6.41	+$1.66	35% 138-259 (397)
AN anothercoin<$100	Noavg 87¢	$4.35	$4.72	+$0.37	4% 17-463 (480)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100	Noavg 94¢	$3.44	$2.82	-$0.62	36% 462-806 (1268)

241532532432ARB<$100

Invested

$116.46

Value

$146.43

PnL

+$29.97

Record

21%

132-485 (617)

Both legs:

No$73.2586.2¢+$7

Yes$43.2115¢+$22.97

Poligarch<$100

Invested

$33.34

Value

$38.05

PnL

+$4.72

Record

89%

409-53 (462)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$33.2

Value

$37.76

PnL

+$4.56

Record

52%

5134-4698 (9832)

Lucerys<$100

Invested

$23.97

Value

$28.77

PnL

+$4.8

Record

37%

2788-4826 (7614)

qwen300.fund<$100

Invested

$23.84

Value

$26.23

PnL

+$2.38

Record

30%

2360-5638 (7998)

HellYeahTrader<$100

Invested

$16.21

Value

$18.9

PnL

+$2.68

Record

12-662 (674)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100

Invested

$12.33

Value

$10.1

PnL

-$2.23

Record

34%

150-294 (444)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$25.9

Value

$6.85

PnL

+$2.3

Record

51%

197-186 (383)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100

Invested

$4.75

Value

$6.41

PnL

+$1.66

Record

35%

138-259 (397)

anothercoin<$100

Invested

$4.35

Value

$4.72

PnL

+$0.37

Record

17-463 (480)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100

Invested

$3.44

Value

$2.82

PnL

-$0.62

Record

36%

462-806 (1268)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 93%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

10 of 10 top traders (100%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

10 traders

Top 2 hold 41%

Freshness

Fresh

7h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 41% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrNo 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 100% · 10

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance94.3%

93.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$6.06

Max Loss

-$100.00

106.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.