Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (51%). 2 of 4 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 15°C on November 10?
2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 49¢ · $176 held · ends Nov 10
⚖️
Neutral
No
4
No 50%
1 arb excluded
$176.01
$2.73
Research grade
NeutralNo at 49%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 4 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 51%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Fading
-21 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
6h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
50% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023CTR<$100 | Noavg 46.1¢ | $5.08 | $65.3 | +$9.08 | 42% 117-164 (281) |
PO PoligarchARB<$100 | Yesavg 54.2¢ | $50.99 | $49.29 | -$1.98 | 81% 210-50 (260) |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 54.2¢ | $29.72 | $27.42 | -$3.68 | |
| └ No leg | Noavg 48.6¢ | $21.27 | $21.87 | +$1.7 | |
24 241532532432<$100 | Yesavg 49.2¢ | $30.77 | $24.54 | -$4.7 | 25% 70-207 (277) |
HE HellYeahTrader<$100 | Yesavg 53¢ | $23.93 | $21 | -$2.94 | 4% 8-216 (224) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Noavg 48.6¢ | $14.59 | $15.88 | +$1.29 | 56% 139-108 (247) |
Invested
$5.08
Value
$65.3
PnL
+$9.08
Record
42%
117-164 (281)
Invested
$50.99
Value
$49.29
PnL
-$1.98
Record
81%
210-50 (260)
Both legs:
Invested
$30.77
Value
$24.54
PnL
-$4.7
Record
25%
70-207 (277)
Invested
$23.93
Value
$21
PnL
-$2.94
Record
4%
8-216 (224)
Invested
$14.59
Value
$15.88
PnL
+$1.29
Record
56%
139-108 (247)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
49.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.3¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.