Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (66%). 1 of 4 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on October 31?
1 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (25%) · Yes at 34¢ · $1K held · ends Oct 31
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
4
Yes 25%
1 arb excluded
$1.3K
$299.99
Research grade
NeutralYes at 34%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 4 top traders (25%)Underdog side (market favors No 66%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR | Yesavg 32¢ | $441.58 | $744.88 | +$303.29 | 47% 646-727 (1373) |
 IstarothARB<$100 | Noavg 68.9¢ | $262.95 | $262.66 | +$3.03 | 21% 300-1139 (1439) |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 32.5¢ | $83.03 | $140.46 | +$57.32 | |
| └ No leg | Noavg 68.9¢ | $175.9 | $122.2 | -$54.3 | |
HE HellYeahTrader | Noavg 47.9¢ | $169.13 | $169.13 | +$0 | 55% 369-296 (665) |
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100 | Noavg 48¢ | $66.8 | $64.2 | +$0.71 | 53% 6479-5682 (12161) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 67¢ | $21.57 | $10.39 | -$4.01 | 57% 13599-10421 (24020) |
Invested
$441.58
Value
$744.88
PnL
+$303.29
Record
47%
646-727 (1373)
IstarothARB<$100Invested
$262.95
Value
$262.66
PnL
+$3.03
Record
21%
300-1139 (1439)
Both legs:
Invested
$169.13
Value
$169.13
PnL
+$0
Record
55%
369-296 (665)
Invested
$66.8
Value
$64.2
PnL
+$0.71
Record
53%
6479-5682 (12161)
Invested
$21.57
Value
$10.39
PnL
-$4.01
Record
57%
13599-10421 (24020)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
34.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.