Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 19°C on October 30?
4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 95¢ · $176 held · ends Oct 30
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 67%
$175.58
-$4.69
93.3¢ → 95.4¢
+2% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 95%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 balthazar<$100 | Noavg 95.1¢ | $99.84 | $91.34 | -$8.5 | 61% 20926-13319 (34245) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 88.6¢ | $80.48 | $31.62 | +$3.42 | 57% 13427-10262 (23689) |
 Istaroth<$100 | Noavg 90¢ | $20.2 | $18.8 | -$1.4 | 21% 295-1083 (1378) |
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271<$100 | Noavg 95.2¢ | $19.05 | $17.4 | -$1.65 | 32% 4389-9438 (13827) |
 LornaPredictsCTR<$100 | Yesavg 4.5¢ | $3.6 | $13.32 | +$9.72 | 18% 525-2347 (2872) |
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100 | Yesavg 6.5¢ | $9.72 | $3.09 | -$6.28 | 53% 6458-5657 (12115) |
balthazar<$100Invested
$99.84
Value
$91.34
PnL
-$8.5
Record
61%
20926-13319 (34245)
Invested
$80.48
Value
$31.62
PnL
+$3.42
Record
57%
13427-10262 (23689)
Istaroth<$100Invested
$20.2
Value
$18.8
PnL
-$1.4
Record
21%
295-1083 (1378)
Invested
$19.05
Value
$17.4
PnL
-$1.65
Record
32%
4389-9438 (13827)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100Invested
$3.6
Value
$13.32
PnL
+$9.72
Record
18%
525-2347 (2872)
Invested
$9.72
Value
$3.09
PnL
-$6.28
Record
53%
6458-5657 (12115)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
95.4¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.