Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (61%). 2 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on October 30?

2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (40%) · Yes at 40¢ · $489 held · ends Oct 30

Yes40¢No60¢Ends Fri, Oct 30, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 40%

Total Value

$489.14

Combined PnL

-$63.07

Smart Money Entry

35.8¢ → 39.5¢

+10% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 40%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

2 of 5 top traders (40%)Underdog side (market favors No 61%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes40%

No61%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes2 traders

Total Value$378.49

Total Shares1,251

Combined PnL-$81.56

No3 traders

Total Value$110.65

Total Shares132

Combined PnL+$18.49

Yes — 40%No — 60%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HE HellYeahTraderCTR	Yesavg 38.4¢	$163.61	$234.06	+$57.68	55% 349-283 (632)
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR	Yesavg 34.4¢	$283.67	$144.43	-$139.24	47% 627-714 (1341)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed	Noavg 67¢	$141.64	$60.79	+$7.43	53% 6451-5652 (12103)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 65.9¢	$43	$39.06	+$12.51	57% 13416-10256 (23672)
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271<$100	Noavg 61.3¢	$12.25	$10.8	-$1.45	32% 4389-9438 (13827)

HellYeahTraderCTR

Yes

Invested

$163.61

Value

$234.06

PnL

+$57.68

Record

55%

349-283 (632)

0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR

Yes

Invested

$283.67

Value

$144.43

PnL

-$139.24

Record

47%

627-714 (1341)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed

Invested

$141.64

Value

$60.79

PnL

+$7.43

Record

53%

6451-5652 (12103)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$43

Value

$39.06

PnL

+$12.51

Record

57%

13416-10256 (23672)

0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271<$100

Invested

$12.25

Value

$10.8

PnL

-$1.45

Record

32%

4389-9438 (13827)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 40%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

2 of 5 top traders (40%)Underdog side (market favors No 61%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance41.7%

39.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$139.78

Max Loss

-$100.00

239.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.