Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 19°C on October 29?

2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (50%) · Yes at 98¢ · $78 held · ends Oct 29

Yes98¢No2¢Ends Thu, Oct 29, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 50%

Total Value

$77.51

Combined PnL

-$11.97

Research grade

NeutralYes at 98%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

2 of 4 top traders (50%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes98%

No2%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes2 traders

Total Value$38.98

Total Shares650

Combined PnL-$4.03

No2 traders

Total Value$38.54

Total Shares63

Combined PnL-$7.94

Yes — 50%No — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HE HellYeahTrader<$100	Yesavg 6.6¢	$42.65	$38.62	-$4.03	55% 302-247 (549)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Noavg 84.9¢	$62.3	$38.28	-$3.6	57% 13257-10098 (23355)
HE hello.67<$100	Yesavg 6¢	$0.35	$0.35	+$0	50% 1689-1672 (3361)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100	Noavg 13¢	$5.3	$0.25	-$4.34	53% 6381-5587 (11968)

HellYeahTrader<$100

Yes

Invested

$42.65

Value

$38.62

PnL

-$4.03

Record

55%

302-247 (549)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Invested

$62.3

Value

$38.28

PnL

-$3.6

Record

57%

13257-10098 (23355)

hello.67<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.35

Value

$0.35

PnL

+$0

Record

50%

1689-1672 (3361)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100

Invested

$5.3

Value

$0.25

PnL

-$4.34

Record

53%

6381-5587 (11968)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 98%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

2 of 4 top traders (50%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance98.6%

97.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$1.40

Max Loss

-$100.00

101.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.